New SE Valley Private Sink? or Swim?

[vallygolf]

I have mentioned before my disappointment with my overcrowded "private" home course at Seville. I knew what it was when I joined (although during the recession it was not so crowded). It is a slightly above average course with above average conditioning, but to get a tee time for a foursome, a week out, any day of the week before 1pm has not been possible. That brings me to my question: Lets assume you could build a course fast and firm of the quality of Desert Forest in the SE valley. Limit membership to 250 golf only members. Would the course sink or swim? What would initiation and dues have to be to make that feasible?

 

I would pay more than I do now (I think it is 8K initiation now, and I pay over $700/month in dues) for Seville if it were private. The mythical course above I would pay 100K and 1500/month to join if it were within 15 mins of my house.

 

**I posted a similar thread but with the new board, I cant seem to find where it ended up..... sorry for the duplicate

 

[az2au]

I think, if it were in the right location in the SE Valley it could work but, remember, that's basically what Southern Dunes was and it failed (admittedly, the male only thing didn't help). It would likely need to be a little less costly than that though. The monthly dues at DF are closer to $1100 which is about the norm in NS. It would probably need to be $50K/$850 to work in that area and I'm just not sure that is possible these days because the course would struggle to make ends meet for that price.

[vallygolf]

Yah, I was unsure on the sweet spot for golf only break even. Southern Dunes is still too far away to command my money for a private gig, and Maricopa just doesnt have the money to sustain private. Encanterra and Seville are bursting at the seams (both pretty good golf). Demographics here in Gilbert are families (ie...anything outside of 20 mins away is a no go). I think there is a market if you have a special course (southern dunes esque). Seville probably has 450 golf members paying near $800/month. Many of my friends go to Mesa, Superstition Mountain, to find a private atmosphere, but like me would be willing to pony up for a good SE valley option.

[golfandfishing]

Just join Superstition Mountain?

[vallygolf]

> @golfandfishing said:

> Just join Superstition Mountain?

 

40 minute drive.....

[golfandfishing]

Yeah, that's a hike for sure. Not sure how feasible the concept you described is, at one time Superstition itself was in receivership and just 1 or 2 moves away from being some sort of public or resort facility at best or closed at worst. Royal Dunes bit the dust as a private club and the market as a whole here is geared towards tourism play with the exception of established privates.

[vallygolf]

I think you articulated my question better than I did. Why cant the SE valley with only two bursting at the seams "private" clubs, and jammed public options that are well below average in quality draw a premier private option?

[DrSchteeve]

> @vallygolf said:

> I think you articulated my question better than I did. Why cant the SE valley with only two bursting at the seams "private" clubs, and jammed public options that are well below average in quality draw a premier private option?

1) The economy - as good as it is, people still remember the recession. It's not like golf is a booming business, even after the recession. A new golf course, public or private, requires millions in investment. Not many, if any, investors see golf courses as a great investment these days.

2) The golf economy - how many new private (or public, for that matter) courses are being built in the valley (I think it's zero)? Verrado Victory is the last one I know of.

3) Concentration of wealthy residents and/or snowbirds. A lot of high end privates get their members from very wealthy folks who may have multiple memberships all over the country. Not sure the east Valley gets a lot of those, as they seem to gravitate to (north) Scottsdale. Go ahead, hit me up Fore.

[AzSuperHack76]

> @DrSchteeve said:

> > @vallygolf said:

> > I think you articulated my question better than I did. Why cant the SE valley with only two bursting at the seams "private" clubs, and jammed public options that are well below average in quality draw a premier private option?

> 1) The economy - as good as it is, people still remember the recession. It's not like golf is a booming business, even after the recession. A new golf course, public or private, requires millions in investment. Not many, if any, investors see golf courses as a great investment these days.

> 2) The golf economy - how many new private (or public, for that matter) courses are being built in the valley (I think it's zero)? Verrado Victory is the last one I know of.

> 3) Concentration of wealthy residents and/or snowbirds. A lot of high end privates get their members from very wealthy folks who may have multiple memberships all over the country. Not sure the east Valley gets a lot of those, as they seem to gravitate to (north) Scottsdale. Go ahead, hit me up Fore.

 

They have added an additional 9 holes out at Copper Canyon.

 

A new Community, Prasada by Toll Brothers is being laid out and construction has already began out in Surprise. Included in the deveolpment is an 18 hole Niklaus designed course.

 

http://www.epsgroupinc.com/2018/10/08/prasada-construction-begins-with-unprecedented-mass-grading/

 

Seems like the West Valley with the affordability of land is capable growing new courses.

 

Has nothing to do with OP's original post but at least we're seeing some golf growth in the valley!

[ferrispgm]

I think the problem is that a new private club isn't going to be a massive draw these days unless you have something crazy unique. The rate of building for courses is not very high and they ones that are tend to be dramatic such as Sand Valley/Mammoth Dunes in WI or the new course at Bandon to take over the sheep ranch. Unfortunately, unless they hire an extremely well known designer or make it the first Tiger Woods course in the western US....I don't see much happening.

 

The west valley has cheaper land but it's also retiree central and isn't going to draw a lot of people in the metro phoenix area or attract a higher rate lower round club. Most people want something cheap and unfortunately that means a lot of rounds.

[sub150]

I played golf with a pair of guys from Toll Brothers working on the new course in Surprise. Just absurdly expensive.

 

I wonder how much it would cost to build a more reserved course like Talking Stick North. Less land, less earth moving, and quicker rounds.

[az2au]

> @sub150 said:

> I played golf with a pair of guys from Toll Brothers working on the new course in Surprise. Just absurdly expensive.

>

> I wonder how much it would cost to build a more reserved course like Talking Stick North. Less land, less earth moving, and quicker rounds.

 

That's Prasada (mentioned above). One of the things that most people don't think about now is the crazy clubhouses that people want. Personally, give me the clubhouse at DF over the rest of the places I belong. I'll go to the gym somewhere else, I want a small bar and restaurant and a minimalist locker room. That doesn't seem to be what most people want and it needs to be a golfers course for golfers to pull that off.

[AzSuperHack76]

Completely forgot, Palm Valley added an additional 9 holes as well.

[sub150]

> @az2au said:

> > @sub150 said:

> > I played golf with a pair of guys from Toll Brothers working on the new course in Surprise. Just absurdly expensive.

> >

> > I wonder how much it would cost to build a more reserved course like Talking Stick North. Less land, less earth moving, and quicker rounds.

>

> That's Prasada (mentioned above). One of the things that most people don't think about now is the crazy clubhouses that people want. Personally, give me the clubhouse at DF over the rest of the places I belong. I'll go to the gym somewhere else, I want a small bar and restaurant and a minimalist locker room. That doesn't seem to be what most people want and it needs to be a golfers course for golfers to pull that off.

 

Right. They said clubhouse was about 35% of the cost when in reality you could do it easily for 5-10% if you were keeping it basic.