Delusional expectations of recreational golfers

[betarhoalphadelta]

On 7/30/2021 at 2:25 PM, Markrip said:

I had my delusional moment last night. I hit a nice drive on a par 5. I was 181 to the pin. There is a creek about 100y from my ball. I only needed 125 to clear the creek to set up an easy third shot. Slight breeze behind me so I can’t use my 5 iron because of steep hill behind the green that goes into a pond. I pull out my 6 instead which I hit 170/175. I figure with the breeze and a little roll possibly eagle for sure a birdie. Of course I shank it into the creek and end up with a 6. Lesson learned, we’ll see in 2 weeks when I play the hole again.

 

1 hour ago, hammersia said:

You’re going to layup short of a hazard at 100 yards next time? 🤔

 

Nah, I took it to mean that as a recreational golfer suddenly he found himself in a situation where he had delusional expectations of a relatively easy eagle or "for sure a birdie", and then the karma gods of golf humbled him for his hubris.

 

So next time he'll take a club that hits over the creek and leave an easy pitch, or at the very least if he's faced with a similar situation he won't just "assume" birdie is his worst case scenario if he does go for the green...

[thejazzmarauder]

5 hours ago, BHI 99 said:

Sorry, your wrong. You just can’t do that. First you need to spend hours on a stimulator to see what your launch angle, ball apex, and dangle angle are and get custom fit for a unobtainium carbon fiber driver that’s matched to a ball that suits the spin rate, elevation, relative humidity, and barometric pressure of the course you’re playing. 

 

And if your belt doesn’t match your headcovers, then don’t even bother making a tee time. 

 

Oh, and post every shot on Instagram, Tik Tok, and I’ll-Be-Damn so you can impress folks you’ll never meet and complete strangers can critique your golf swing because they read about golf on Google somewhere and got drunk at Top Golf once. 

 

Who hurt you?

[DaveGoodrich]

Our brains inherently believe anecdotal evidence over statistical evidence. 

 

So it's really easy to fall into the trap of expecting to hit the ball every time as well as we hit it sometimes.  After all, we know we can do it, so why couldn't I do it this time?  We don't accept that that the previous times we hit that difficult shot well may have been on the "good tail" of the bell curve (e.g., over time, you may pull that shot off only 2 out of 10 times).  But that "statistic-ish" kind of thinking is exactly what is necessary to actually lower scores over time, even if you don't keep detailed stats. 

 

[smashdn]

On 7/30/2021 at 4:24 PM, dvq9654 said:

Coming to the realization that golf is not a game of perfect is huge. Along with that, one can also learn that golf generally has a pretty large margin for error. For instance, most fairways are pretty darn wide and most greens have plenty of space to hit. When you realize these two things, you can loosen up, enjoy the game more and probably score a lot better. 

 

To go along with this, and to make it somewhat tactical, developing a consistent shot shape is huge.  If you play a cut, play a cut.  Aim it up the left side and let it come back into the fairway.  It is a great mental thing when you know you can aim it at a target and not hit it left of it.

 

How far it comes back then becomes the issue.

 

I had an ugly draw/mostly bordering on hook shape for a long time.  I could play it though.  Worked on grip and getting under the plane and now hit a tight fade or push fade.  Very controllable shot shape.  Irons still are not as consistent as I would like though.

[iutodd]

4 hours ago, DaveGoodrich said:

Our brains inherently believe anecdotal evidence over statistical evidence. 

 

So it's really easy to fall into the trap of expecting to hit the ball every time as well as we hit it sometimes.  After all, we know we can do it, so why couldn't I do it this time?  We don't accept that that the previous times we hit that difficult shot well may have been on the "good tail" of the bell curve (e.g., over time, you may pull that shot off only 2 out of 10 times).  But that "statistic-ish" kind of thinking is exactly what is necessary to actually lower scores over time, even if you don't keep detailed stats. 

 

 

This is a great post....

 

But I do think you need that confidence and that belief in yourself because golf is about being able to execute the shot.  And there is something to be said for the idea that you gotta get while the getting is good so if you're playing well you damn well better being trying to pull off shots.  I think stats are awesome and I believe in their power to help golfers make smart decisions - but I also believe that sometimes you gotta just grip it and rip it.  Knowing when you CAN do that vs when you CAN'T is hard.

Edited August 2, 2021 by iutodd

[NoTalentLefty]

Usually my delusions are over by the first tee and after the first f bomb come out. Golf is fun after that. At 62 I don’t have expectations. Oh yeah one, to get to the 18th with out dying.

[ChaosTheory]

2 hours ago, smashdn said:

 

To go along with this, and to make it somewhat tactical, developing a consistent shot shape is huge.  If you play a cut, play a cut.  Aim it up the left side and let it come back into the fairway.  It is a great mental thing when you know you can aim it at a target and not hit it left of it.

 

How far it comes back then becomes the issue.

 

I had an ugly draw/mostly bordering on hook shape for a long time.  I could play it though.  Worked on grip and getting under the plane and now hit a tight fade or push fade.  Very controllable shot shape.  Irons still are not as consistent as I would like though.

 

Some of my best scores have been when I was playing a cut and embracing it.  I think that for bogey golfers and worse, the hard part of playing for a shot shape is that when you don't get the curve, or you double cross, and end up deep in trouble, it feels so painful.   More so than when you try to hit a straight ball and you get a curve.   I know it's not logical, but people aren't logical.

 

I wonder if anyone else feels the same.

[DaveGoodrich]

14 minutes ago, iutodd said:

 

This is a great post....

 

But I do think you need that confidence and that belief in yourself because golf is about being able to execute the shot.  And there is something to be said for the idea that you gotta get while the getting is good so if you're playing well you damn well better being trying to pull off shots.  I think stats are awesome and I believe in their power to help golfers make smart decisions - but I also believe that sometimes you gotta just grip it and rip it.  Knowing when you CAN do that vs when you CAN'T is hard.

I don't necessarily advocate keeping rigorous stats.  I don't personally.  But past performance is indeed the best predicter of future results, so a realistic understanding of your capabilities, based on actual experience, is essential to scoring your best.  "Realistic understanding" is pretty much the opposite of "delusional expectations."
 

Avoiding bogies is so much easier that making birdies, so its almost never worth attempting shots you can't pull off on a regular basis ("pull off" meaning a fairway or green hit, or a "safe" miss).   And Risk =  Likelihood x Consequence.  One thing that doesn't get discussed enough when thinking about whether or not to attempt that "hero" shot, is that that your decision should depend significantly on the consequences of hitting a bad shot.  Its not just whether you can pull the shot off, but what happens if you miss.   In short; if a small miss could result in a big number, then you should be hitting a different shot.  

 

Sure, there are times when it may be worth the 2/10 chance to pull off that hero shot (e.g. because you "need" a birdie right now to stay in the match, or you are "coming down the stretch" a couple strokes behind, etc.).   And, of course, if you are striking it well on a particular day, that could change your risk/reward calculation a bit, depending on the consequences of not pulling the shot off.   But most folks take on way too much risk relative to their abilities, and their handicaps reflect that.   

 

I think lots of folks just think it is more fun to play risky golf instead of "doing what they should" to shoot the lowest scores possible over time.   This can be especially true when skins are involved.  In that way, playing for skins really isn't compatible with the handicap system, which is supposed to reflect your potential when you are trying to shoot a score.  If you are taking silly risks, then you really aren't trying to shoot a score.  

 

 

 

[iutodd]

OK I totally agree with the idea that "hero shots" are dumb.  You're not going to make that gap in the trees.  You are not gonna carry the water.  There is a quote by somebody - like Hogan or Palmer or someone - and they say something like....get back into position and then hit your hero shot with a wedge.  And people do almost always take too much on with those kinds of shots.

 

I think I'm more talking about subtler differences between choices made on a golf course where the statistical difference of success between two shots is much closer.  Hypotheticals are infinite here but lets say it's a short-ish par four and you can either try to hit driver over some bunkers leaving a short second (with a ~5/10 success rate) or hit hybrid off the tee and stay short of the bunkers but leave a longer second (with a ~7/10 success rate).  Or approaching the green and you've got 145 to the middle but the pin is in the back half and the back of the green is 162.  Do you just play for the center with a shorter club or do you try to get aggressive with one club more?  The success rates are probably within 10% of each other given they're short irons.

 

I think you can't always choose the safer option - sometimes you need to take on a shot that is slightly risky.  Avoiding bogies and doubles is always a good way to play - but golfers also have to think about when and how they can try to make birdie.  

[Bocaji]

Not to brag but I have this sick 100 y low shot shape, I can do it with my 9 iron. It’s pretty cool. Oh and I can do it with my 6 iron or even 3 wood.. actually works with all my clubs. 
 

I know when people talk about delusional expectations, their normally referring to “hero shots” or going for a low percentage shot and missing the green/fairway or into the hazard... I’m on something else lol.

[sekrah]

15 hours ago, Snowman9000 said:

Some of my best scores have been when I was playing a cut and embracing it.  I think that for bogey golfers and worse, the hard part of playing for a shot shape is that when you don't get the curve, or you double cross, and end up deep in trouble, it feels so painful.   More so than when you try to hit a straight ball and you get a curve.   I know it's not logical, but people aren't logical.

 

I can safely say that I fit into this.  My shot shape is not consistent at all.  I can hit a fade a good percentage of time, but it'll occasionally be a draw or pull draw, or sometimes I don't get around on it and it's an ugly push slice.  I drive my best when I'm just focused on swinging hard and squaring up the club for the middle of the fairway.  I obviously get dispersion, but trying to play for the fade or any single flight would get me into big trouble.

 

 

 

[DaveGoodrich]

1 hour ago, iutodd said:

OK I totally agree with the idea that "hero shots" are dumb.  You're not going to make that gap in the trees.  You are not gonna carry the water.  There is a quote by somebody - like Hogan or Palmer or someone - and they say something like....get back into position and then hit your hero shot with a wedge.  And people do almost always take too much on with those kinds of shots.

I like the "hit your hero shot with a wedge" concept.  Usually, we have more choices than "chip it out sideways" and "go for the green through that small gap in the trees."  I look for opportunities to advance the ball into short iron/wedge range, so iIhave some chance at par, and limit the likely damage to bogey.  

 

1 hour ago, iutodd said:

 

I think I'm more talking about subtler differences between choices made on a golf course where the statistical difference of success between two shots is much closer.  Hypotheticals are infinite here but lets say it's a short-ish par four and you can either try to hit driver over some bunkers leaving a short second (with a ~5/10 success rate) or hit hybrid off the tee and stay short of the bunkers but leave a longer second (with a ~7/10 success rate).  

 

Remember, its not just the likelihood of pulling off that tee shot.  You need to consider what the resulting "odds" will be for the next shot.   Hitting driver here is "riskier," but hitting it successfully means the next shot will be lower risk (basically making your resulting score almost certainly between 3 and 4).  Laying up short is "safer," but makes the next shot riskier, in terms of the chance of making bogie or worse, so now your resulting score is more likely going to be between 3.5 and 4.5 (hypothetically, obviously).  Theoretically, you would multiply these likelihoods all the way through completion of the hole to determine your "most likely score" for each choice from the tee.  Almost nobody has enough actual personal data to make these "calculations," but the point is that you need to look further than the next shot when deciding what is "safe" vs. what is "risky."   For sure, in these "close call" situations, your "feeling" about how well you are hitting it that day will enter into the equation.  But that "feeling" should be a "tie breaker" not your primary criteria.   

 

2 hours ago, iutodd said:

 Or approaching the green and you've got 145 to the middle but the pin is in the back half and the back of the green is 162.  Do you just play for the center with a shorter club or do you try to get aggressive with one club more?  

 

This one is easy.  Most "misses" are short (mishits almost always go shorter than quality strikes - skulled wedges being the exception).  So generally, the conventional wisdom is for back or middle pins, hit the club that gets close to the back if hit pure.  For front pins, hit the club that gets to the middle when hit pure.  Again, if you are "feeling it" that day, then you may adjust this strategy slightly, and some adjustment may be necessary for very large greens.

 

3 hours ago, iutodd said:

I think you can't always choose the safer option - sometimes you need to take on a shot that is slightly risky.  Avoiding bogies and doubles is always a good way to play - but golfers also have to think about when and how they can try to make birdie.

 

The fact is, most amateurs, even low single digit players, don't have the ball striking ability to aggressively "go after" pins without taking on excess risk (see the previous comment about tour player actual proximity numbers, and our unrealistic expectations).   Other than Par 5's, where we are more likely to be approaching from very close to the green, we make birdies by picking safe targets, and sometimes missing on the "correct" side, leaving us a few realistic birdie looks per round.    

   

[betarhoalphadelta]

18 minutes ago, DaveGoodrich said:

 

Remember, its not just the likelihood of pulling off that tee shot.  You need to consider what the resulting "odds" will be for the next shot.   Hitting driver here is "riskier," but hitting it successfully means the next shot will be lower risk (basically making your resulting score almost certainly between 3 and 4).  Laying up short is "safer," but makes the next shot riskier, in terms of the chance of making bogie or worse, so now your resulting score is more likely going to be between 3.5 and 4.5 (hypothetically, obviously).  Theoretically, you would multiply these likelihoods all the way through completion of the hole to determine your "most likely score" for each choice from the tee.  Almost nobody has enough actual personal data to make these "calculations," but the point is that you need to look further than the next shot when deciding what is "safe" vs. what is "risky."   For sure, in these "close call" situations, your "feeling" about how well you are hitting it that day will enter into the equation.  But that "feeling" should be a "tie breaker" not your primary criteria.   

   

 

For this one, the giveaway was "short par 4". 

 

If you're playing a 450 par 4 and there are bunkers at 250, and a good drive for you is 270 and a good 4h is 230, you run into a much different risk reward calculation than if it's a 330 par 4 with the same bunkers 250 from the tee and the same distances.

 

On the 450 par 4, you lay up and leave yourself a REALLY difficult distance to have any chance at making the green, whereas if you make it over the bunkers, hitting 180 to the green is much more manageable. From 220 you're likely to not make the green, just as if you hit into the bunkers you're not likely to make the green, so going aggressive at least gives you the payoff if you manage to clear those bunkers.

 

On the 330 par 4, you have a really good chance of making a good shot into the green with a 60 yard wedge shot or with a 100 yard wedge shot. Obviously the 60 is better, but probably not ENOUGH better to offset the damage that you'd do to your score if you hit into the bunker. The payoff doesn't justify the risk.

 

[smashdn]

18 hours ago, Snowman9000 said:

 

Some of my best scores have been when I was playing a cut and embracing it.  I think that for bogey golfers and worse, the hard part of playing for a shot shape is that when you don't get the curve, or you double cross, and end up deep in trouble, it feels so painful.   More so than when you try to hit a straight ball and you get a curve.   I know it's not logical, but people aren't logical.

 

I wonder if anyone else feels the same.

 

Yeah the double cross is bad, bad.  But a bogey golfer is not a bad golfer really.  The double cross should be a rarity.  And certainly you wouldn't want to aim up the left side if there was woods, gunch or ob up the left too.  You still aim away from trouble or short of trouble but I think aiming in the center when your average shot shape is a 15 yard fade or cut is also not a good play barring the exceptions with the trouble areas I mentioned.

 

Knowing your shot shape and dispersion cone thing is a huge help.  Being strong-minded enough to know all that and play away or short of the trouble is the big thing.

[Kenny Lee Puckett]

delusional is all the weekend players I watch who hit/play a slice, yet aim towards the right side of every hole.

[NoTalentLefty]

On 8/2/2021 at 5:55 PM, NoTalentLefty said:

Usually my delusions are over by the first tee and after the first f bomb come out. Golf is fun after that. At 62 I don’t have expectations. Oh yeah one, to get to the 18th with out dying.

And I made it today.

[oikos1]

If you don't expect to hit the best shot you can hit every time, you might as well just go for a four hour walk in the park.  It's how you respond to the piece of crap you hit that determines if golf is really the game for you.

[betarhoalphadelta]

10 minutes ago, oikos1 said:

If you don't expect to hit the best shot you can hit every time, you might as well just go for a four hour walk in the park.  It's how you respond to the piece of crap you hit that determines if golf is really the game for you.

 

Yes and no... I know that occasionally I can hit the ball straight, but that my typical flight pattern is a draw, and that my miss is a big sweeping hook.

 

So on approach shots I'm typically aiming right edge of the green. If I draw, it's a perfect shot. If I hook it, I can still miss left. If I hit it straight, it's not "the best shot I can hit" but at least it's safe. 

 

If I expected to hit "the best shot I can hit" I'd aim straight at the pin, and my draw would be a miss left and my hook would be in the next county. 

[oikos1]

1 hour ago, betarhoalphadelta said:

 

Yes and no... I know that occasionally I can hit the ball straight, but that my typical flight pattern is a draw, and that my miss is a big sweeping hook.

 

So on approach shots I'm typically aiming right edge of the green. If I draw, it's a perfect shot. If I hook it, I can still miss left. If I hit it straight, it's not "the best shot I can hit" but at least it's safe. 

 

If I expected to hit "the best shot I can hit" I'd aim straight at the pin, and my draw would be a miss left and my hook would be in the next county. 

Exactly.  So you aim to hit the best shot you can hit for you.  That's the point. 

[HoldTheLag]

Watching golf on youtube/TV somewhat contributes to this type of mindset. The coverage usually shows the handful of spectacular shots that the pros hit in a given event out of the thousands that may not be all that great (for their standards usually, but some by even my standards).

 

Even if you know this fact, just by repeat exposure the mindset is molded subconsciously.

[HoldTheLag]

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Edited August 5, 2021 by HoldTheLag
duplicate

[dwgreen1983]

Most golfers don't even know what a good shot is versus a bad shot.........

 

Most golfers don't know their own dispersion for the shot in hand.......what on earth are they using to judge good or bad? (tigers game?)

 

Obviously you have the extreme shots......but the 90% in between.......it's just dispersion 

 

[jonsnow]

On 8/2/2021 at 7:55 AM, BHI 99 said:

 

Sorry, your wrong. You just can’t do that. First you need to spend hours on a stimulator to see what your launch angle, ball apex, and dangle angle are and get custom fit for a unobtainium carbon fiber driver that’s matched to a ball that suits the spin rate, elevation, relative humidity, and barometric pressure of the course you’re playing. 

 

And if your belt doesn’t match your headcovers, then don’t even bother making a tee time. 

 

Oh, and post every shot on Instagram, Tik Tok, and I’ll-Be-Damn so you can impress folks you’ll never meet and complete strangers can critique your golf swing because they read about golf on Google somewhere and got drunk at Top Golf once. 

I'm too old to spend hours on a stimulator. I would need some Viagra & I'm sure it wouldn't be good for my heart...plus, I'm sure I don't want to know what my ball apex & dangle angle are.

Edited August 5, 2021 by jonsnow

[Robert L.]

On 8/2/2021 at 7:55 AM, BHI 99 said:

 

Sorry, your wrong. You just can’t do that. First you need to spend hours on a stimulator to see what your launch angle, ball apex, and dangle angle are and get custom fit for a unobtainium carbon fiber driver that’s matched to a ball that suits the spin rate, elevation, relative humidity, and barometric pressure of the course you’re playing. 

 

And if your belt doesn’t match your headcovers, then don’t even bother making a tee time. 

 

Oh, and post every shot on Instagram, Tik Tok, and I’ll-Be-Damn so you can impress folks you’ll never meet and complete strangers can critique your golf swing because they read about golf on Google somewhere and got drunk at Top Golf once. 

I love this post!

[Barfolomew]

You just gotta realize golf is a game of mishits and that no one has ever hit the perfect shot....

 

if you looked at any shot to the smallest degree it could always be better and more in the center of the club..... so get over yourself and have fun

[Robert L.]

Resurrecting a somewhat old thread....

If you're getting down on yourself then check out this YT video of some of the worse shots compilation on the DP World Tour (formerly the European Tour). The first bad shot is from Rory McIlroy, this year's winner of the Tour Championship and British Open runner-up. He hits a monstrous hook right into the water!

I like watching these videos every once in a while. I feel a lot better about my own game afterwards.

 

The touring pros are overall a lot better than us, but golf knocks them down a peg or two.

[Dufferonius]

The way the author of Zen Golf puts it (paraphased) is to be confident of the outcome but realistic about the results.  Put another way: Expect excellence, but don't get yourself all wrapped around the axle when it doesn't happen.

 

I've read a couple interesting stats in reading various threads and articles, recently.  PGA Pros have an average of only 60% FIR off the tee and make an average of only 50% of eight-foot putts.

 

Edited September 13, 2022 by Dufferonius