NFL Football Thread

[MU Mike]

4 hours ago, jda said:

If I was a script guy, I would look more to the possibility that the NFL created behind the scenes rules that:

 

Forced Buffalo to trade #10 for Mahomes

Forced Buffalo to trade #27 for Xaviar Worthy

Sign Perine after nobody claimed him off of waivers

Sign Juju after nobody claimed him off of waivers

Get Kareem Hunt off of his couch a few weeks into the season

Trade a song for Hopkins

Do not hire Spags to be a head coach - which is likely to happen again unless NOLA does it.  This one amazes me.

Create a rule that a Guard cannot play Left Tackle and a backup fill in at Guard

 

I get the fatigue.  I had Patriots, Yankees, KU Basketball and certainly Bulls fatigue.  Still recognized that they were just better.  The Yankees one was the worst for me since they had more resources and not exactly a fair playing field, but this is baseball and need to live with it.  There is a chance that last year and this year were when somebody in the AFC was supposed to get KC - their young skill guys are developing and look out if they keep Spags and get a legit left tackle and Pat can sit back there and throw bombs again.

 

It's rigged, don't you see that?  The NFL clearly wants a small market team in the midwest to rule the NFL.  Makes total sense to me, and all the refs conspire together to make it happen while the league nods approvingly.  And I'm sure all of these people who say it's rigged have made massive amounts of money betting on the Chiefs since they already know the outcome, right?

 

The entire discourse is so entertaining you just have to laugh at it. 

 

I'm just going to enjoy attending my fifth Super Bowl in six years.  This is me on the field last night during the awards presentation celebrating another Chiefs AFC trophy.  From a poor kid growing up in north KC in the 70's and only knowing Chiefs heartbreak decade after decade after decade, you're damn right I'm enjoying this.

 

 

 

[jda]

4 hours ago, Pnwpingi210 said:

Just read the last few post.  Interesting discussion.

 

i don’t gamble so im pretty clueless when it comes to sports betting but are any of these 50/50 calls that go a certain direction impacting the game enough to benefit the house or sports book company?  Probably the wrong lingo….

 

This can be pretty complicated, but the simple answer is that betting has no impact on games.

 

Most books move the line so that money ends up mostly equal on both sides and they take their 10% and move on.  One side is usually the $100 Loser (general public) with the sharps on the other - not many sharps line up with the general public.  Sometimes a book will see an opportunity get the $100L and Sharps on the same side and try and make a killing, but they also can get killed.

 

The $100L usually follow the narratives of the typical NFL fan, talking head shows or just guess or go with their instincts.  The sharps watch games, understand the game and make money when more $100L put in bets.  Sharps can get limited in their bet amounts if there are not enough $100L tickes out there on the other side.  This can actually be truly rigged since books do NOT have to take bets if they are going to lose.

 

In the games last week this is likely what the $100L and Sharps saw:

 

$100L saw Josh Allen struggle to get first downs on short plays, need spots while the Sharps saw KC get 6 yards and convert 2 points conversions on theirs with no doubt.

$100L saw Bills run the same play to get first down whereas Sharps saw Chiefs have multiple plays that get well beyond the first down mark (liek the last two to ice the clock).

$100L saw a upheld call on a long pass when KC would have kept the ball anyway and the Sharps saw Buffalo fumble 5 times and not lose any of them (what is truly lucky).

$100L gets caught up in Jayden Daniels hype and the Sharp has seen what the Linemen look like for Eagles.

 

Some sharps are conglomos, corporations and a few individuals.  They need/want people to whine about luck, refs and all of that because they can make more money.  Some of them get on the internet to stir stuff up.  If you want to argue that they are paying off announcers and stuff to make a big deal out of these things, this might make more sense than the refs being in on it.

 

Casinos will never want to impact a game or all of their cred will be gone.  They just want to make the vig and move on.  The Sharps want more morons betting on excuses, luck, etc. so that they can wager more and play against the public.

[jda]

4 hours ago, TiScape said:

I most definitely don’t feel that it’s anything as blatant as a “script”. I feel It’s more like the refs gently helping to obtain a league desired outcome. Giving KC the 50/50 calls. When in doubt, err in KCs favor

 

So the refs are too stupid to get calls right, but can follow this higher level directive perfectly?  Plus, the other 31 owners all voted and are OK with this?  Seriously?  People have to know that this is complete garbage, right?

[jda]

54 minutes ago, MU Mike said:

I'm just going to enjoy attending my fifth Super Bowl in six years.  This is me on the field last night during the awards presentation celebrating another Chiefs AFC trophy.  From a poor kid growing up in north KC in the 70's and only knowing Chiefs heartbreak decade after decade after decade, you're damn right I'm enjoying this.

 

Wife and I are both Mizzou alum from Lees Summit now in Boulder.

 

Guess that all 31 other owners just love KC BBQ so much that they voted to let KC win it all.

[Rory4Pres]

I wish we could watch the chiefs and bills square off every weekend.  It's always one of the best and most entertaining matchups every single year.  

[Pnwpingi210]

7 minutes ago, jda said:

 

This can be pretty complicated, but the simple answer is that betting has no impact on games.

 

Most books move the line so that money ends up mostly equal on both sides and they take their 10% and move on.  One side is usually the $100 Loser (general public) with the sharps on the other - not many sharps line up with the general public.  Sometimes a book will see an opportunity get the $100L and Sharps on the same side and try and make a killing, but they also can get killed.

 

The $100L usually follow the narratives of the typical NFL fan, talking head shows or just guess or go with their instincts.  The sharps watch games, understand the game and make money when more $100L put in bets.  Sharps can get limited in their bet amounts if there are not enough $100L tickes out there on the other side.  This can actually be truly rigged since books do NOT have to take bets if they are going to lose.

 

In the games last week this is likely what the $100L and Sharps saw:

 

$100L saw Josh Allen struggle to get first downs on short plays, need spots while the Sharps saw KC get 6 yards and convert 2 points conversions on theirs with no doubt.

$100L saw Bills run the same play to get first down whereas Sharps saw Chiefs have multiple plays that get well beyond the first down mark (liek the last two to ice the clock).

$100L saw a upheld call on a long pass when KC would have kept the ball anyway and the Sharps saw Buffalo fumble 5 times and not lose any of them (what is truly lucky).

$100L gets caught up in Jayden Daniels hype and the Sharp has seen what the Linemen look like for Eagles.

 

Some sharps are conglomos, corporations and a few individuals.  They need/want people to whine about luck, refs and all of that because they can make more money.  Some of them get on the internet to stir stuff up.  If you want to argue that they are paying off announcers and stuff to make a big deal out of these things, this might make more sense than the refs being in on it.

 

Casinos will never want to impact a game or all of their cred will be gone.  They just want to make the vig and move on.  The Sharps want more morons betting on excuses, luck, etc. so that they can wager more and play against the public.

Very educational.  Thanks for the insight.

 

i see why I don’t do this.  Needs too much brain horsepower. 

[MU Mike]

3 minutes ago, jda said:

 

Wife and I are both Mizzou alum from Lees Summit now in Boulder.

 

Guess that all 31 other owners just love KC BBQ so much that they voted to let KC win it all.

M-I-Z!

 

I'm a Tiger as well (undergrad and law school).  Saw a tweet I think you'll also appreciate:

 

https://x.com/TigerWill06/status/1883883628121464920

[jda]

59 minutes ago, Pnwpingi210 said:

Very educational.  Thanks for the insight.

 

i see why I don’t do this.  Needs too much brain horsepower. 

 

You can make money betting on sports just by having discipline and going against the general public.  You do have to know what general public narratives are real, since some are, and just go against the stupid ones.  The discipline is hard and too many chase losses and/or get greedy.

 

For example, auto betting Mahomes as an underdog is real, so pay attention to this.  Refs, luck and script is not real, so bet against these narratives.  Chiefs not caring about if or how much they win by in the regular season is real, so consider betting against them with a large number or just stay away.  Teams with old rosters and top-heavy salary caps can be bet against, especially once they have to let talent leave - 49ers.  Teams with hella turnovers and a few big weeks scoring are a good place to be against the public - NOLA early this season.  Flashy coaches are good to bet against in the playoffs since they often peak too early and flash against bad teams - Denver and Chargers who never beat a winning team so if you see them favored against a winner, then take the other side.

 

Nearly any narrative that you see on Reddit or the internet in general is a good one to go against.  Ex players with shows online why dig deep, don't make excuses and offer really good insight usually can help you if you pay attention to what they are trying to say.  Long Bros offer good insight about the game, for example.

 

You can go 60-40 or 65-35 just by doing this.  Most people cannot since they get the narratives wrong or cannot just make consistent bets and let the good times roll and limit the bad times.  There are sites that show you the tickets vs the money.  If the tickets are all on one side and the money on the other, then that means that the public (tickets) is against the sharps (money)... public does not win as many of these as they lose.

 

Where this is really rigged is if you start to win a good clip, the book can/will limit your bets.  This is why many pro gamblers have to go in person and wear those glasses with the nose and fake moustaches - kidding, but some used to wear disguises, but I imagine that the security is better than this now.  Some send in neighbors and friends to place bets.

[jda]

1 hour ago, MU Mike said:

M-I-Z!

 

I'm a Tiger as well (undergrad and law school).  Saw a tweet I think you'll also appreciate:

 

https://x.com/TigerWill06/status/1883883628121464920

 

I was at Faurot about ready to jump the wall when Frost threw that kicked pass to Davison.  I promise that I never once thought that the NCAA, Deep State, Big 8, Watergate, Grassy Knoll, Refs or anybody rigged the game, just that it was a bad call.  Lamented the misfortune, but did not whine about it - D back could have knocked it down better.  ..nothing that a few brews and the girlfriend could not get sorted.

[deadsolid...shank]

33 minutes ago, jda said:

 

I was at Faurot about ready to jump the wall when Frost threw that kicked pass to Davison.  I promise that I never once thought that the NCAA, Deep State, Big 8, Watergate, Grassy Knoll, Refs or anybody rigged the game, just that it was a bad call.  Lamented the misfortune, but did not whine about it - D back could have knocked it down better.  ..nothing that a few brews and the girlfriend could not get sorted.

I’m curious, why do you think it was a bad call?

 

He's getting knocked over backwards and his legs obviously are coming up. Maybe he was trying to keep the ball alive to try and catch it, but that’s legal:

NCAA rules at the time generally prohibited intentional kicks by players other than kickers and punters. However, the rules also allowed players to use any part of their bodies to catch a forward pass. 
 

But to think he was in control enough to kick it to a teammate…..

 

Anyway, everybody else in college football got the last laugh. They’ve sucked since then, and were at their worst with Frost as the head coach. 

[jda]

10 minutes ago, deadsolid...shank said:

I’m curious, why do you think it was a bad call?

 

He's getting knocked over backwards and his legs obviously are coming up. Maybe he was trying to keep the ball alive to try and catch it, but that’s legal:

NCAA rules at the time generally prohibited intentional kicks by players other than kickers and punters. However, the rules also allowed players to use any part of their bodies to catch a forward pass. 
 

But to think he was in control enough to kick it to a teammate…..

 

Anyway, everybody else in college football got the last laugh. They’ve sucked since then, and were at their worst with Frost as the head coach. 

 

Difference in trying to catch with your feet and intentionally kicking it towards something else.  I don't think he was trying to catch it in between the arches of his feet.  Any intentional kick is illegal.  Human element is part of the game and what makes it great.  Just have to be better.

 

I was also at the 5th down game, but was a youngster.  Again, not rigged or intentional, just human who made a mistake.  When we learned of the 5th down, our coach at the time beat into us that we never blame refs and no one play ever decided a game.

 

What is funny about both of those NU teams went on to at least play in a national championship game.

 

NU got the 50 year RC Slocum curse when you fire a 10 win coach (Solich) because you think that you are better than that... and the eligibility rules changed and stuff.  🙂  B1G wanted NU for their AAU status which they lost shortly after acceptance.  Everybody else certainly did get the last laugh.

[bscinstnct]

1 hour ago, jda said:

 

You can make money betting on sports just by having discipline and going against the general public.  You do have to know what general public narratives are real, since some are, and just go against the stupid ones.  The discipline is hard and too many chase losses and/or get greedy.

 

For example, auto betting Mahomes as an underdog is real, so pay attention to this.  Refs, luck and script is not real, so bet against these narratives.  Chiefs not caring about if or how much they win by in the regular season is real, so consider betting against them with a large number or just stay away.  Teams with old rosters and top-heavy salary caps can be bet against, especially once they have to let talent leave - 49ers.  Teams with hella turnovers and a few big weeks scoring are a good place to be against the public - NOLA early this season.  Flashy coaches are good to bet against in the playoffs since they often peak too early and flash against bad teams - Denver and Chargers who never beat a winning team so if you see them favored against a winner, then take the other side.

 

Nearly any narrative that you see on Reddit or the internet in general is a good one to go against.  Ex players with shows online why dig deep, don't make excuses and offer really good insight usually can help you if you pay attention to what they are trying to say.  Long Bros offer good insight about the game, for example.

 

You can go 60-40 or 65-35 just by doing this.  Most people cannot since they get the narratives wrong or cannot just make consistent bets and let the good times roll and limit the bad times.  There are sites that show you the tickets vs the money.  If the tickets are all on one side and the money on the other, then that means that the public (tickets) is against the sharps (money)... public does not win as many of these as they lose.

 

Where this is really rigged is if you start to win a good clip, the book can/will limit your bets.  This is why many pro gamblers have to go in person and wear those glasses with the nose and fake moustaches - kidding, but some used to wear disguises, but I imagine that the security is better than this now.  Some send in neighbors and friends to place bets.

 

Last time I bet on football was like 🤔 

 

1993!

 

My buddy convinced me that Buddy Ryan Oilers were gonna crush Montana! Bet 5 hundy 

 

I knew we were doomed when Montana threw a TD pass and the Chiefs receiver runs to the back of the endzone after catching the pass

 

and throws the ball right into the face of this giant Buddy Ryan banner some Oiler fan made on a bed sheet !

 

You could actually hear the ball as it hit Buddys face….boom! 🤣

 

Never bet again ; )

[deadsolid...shank]

24 minutes ago, jda said:

 

Difference in trying to catch with your feet and intentionally kicking it towards something else.  I don't think he was trying to catch it in between the arches of his feet.  Any intentional kick is illegal.  Human element is part of the game and what makes it great.  Just have to be better.

 

I was also at the 5th down game, but was a youngster.  Again, not rigged or intentional, just human who made a mistake.  When we learned of the 5th down, our coach at the time beat into us that we never blame refs and no one play ever decided a game.

 

What is funny about both of those NU teams went on to at least play in a national championship game.

 

NU got the 50 year RC Slocum curse when you fire a 10 win coach (Solich) because you think that you are better than that... and the eligibility rules changed and stuff.  🙂  B1G wanted NU for their AAU status which they lost shortly after acceptance.  Everybody else certainly did get the last laugh.

Solich’s win totals would have started dropping dramatically once Osborne ‘s recruits were gone. Frank was a great assistant coach, but he didn’t have the recruiting chops to have kept them at that level. 
 

The only 5th down game I remember was Colorado. Maybe against Michigan? Don’t ever remember that scenario in regards to Nebraska. 

[TiScape]

8 hours ago, jda said:

 

So the refs are too stupid to get calls right, but can follow this higher level directive perfectly?  Plus, the other 31 owners all voted and are OK with this?  Seriously?  People have to know that this is complete garbage, right?

Not at all. And almost all knowledgeable football fans I know that aren’t Chiefs fans, agree. Heck, NBA refs direct the narrative of games on the regular by enforcing fouls that favor certain teams/players. And that’s a fact as my good friend’s sister is an NBA ref. Those words are directly out of her mouth… So why not the NFL? I actually think ur naive if you don’t think it’s happening. 

Edited January 28 by TiScape

[TiScape]

5 hours ago, MU Mike said:

 

It's rigged, don't you see that?  The NFL clearly wants a small market team in the midwest to rule the NFL.  Makes total sense to me, and all the refs conspire together to make it happen while the league nods approvingly.  And I'm sure all of these people who say it's rigged have made massive amounts of money betting on the Chiefs since they already know the outcome, right?

 

The entire discourse is so entertaining you just have to laugh at it. 

 

I'm just going to enjoy attending my fifth Super Bowl in six years.  This is me on the field last night during the awards presentation celebrating another Chiefs AFC trophy.  From a poor kid growing up in north KC in the 70's and only knowing Chiefs heartbreak decade after decade after decade, you're damn right I'm enjoying this.

 

 

 

Another life long Chiefs fan that doesn’t think the refs have an agenda… Color me shocked! 😳 

🤣

 

But whatever. Good for you and enjoy your 5th Super Bowl in 6 years! 😊

[bscinstnct]

 

 

Proof it’s rigged!

 

🤣 🍻 

[jda]

Refs definitely favored the bills.  Missed face mask on a drive with a short punt when KC could have gotten a FG.  Missed offsides resulted in a 3rd and 15 instead of 3rd and 5.  Giving Worthy the catch so that Bills could get the ball back before halftime.  Rigged.

 

Refs wanted Bills to win and tried to keep them in it.

[TiScape]

15 minutes ago, jda said:

Refs definitely favored the bills.  Missed face mask on a drive with a short punt when KC could have gotten a FG.  Missed offsides resulted in a 3rd and 15 instead of 3rd and 5.  Giving Worthy the catch so that Bills could get the ball back before halftime.  Rigged.

 

Refs wanted Bills to win and tried to keep them in it.

Enjoy ur three-peat jda ☺️

[Rory4Pres]

Facts to back up my statement about how good the Bills/Chiefs games are...

 

57.4 million watched the Chiefs/Bills game.  Highest viewership of an NFC or AFC championship game since 2012 (giants/49ers 57.7 million).  

 

Meanwhile the commanders/eagles was 44.2 million viewers, the lowest since 2019 (Rams/Saints 44.1 million).  

 

For perspective, 15.8 million was the average viewership for the world series last year.

[TiScape]

30 minutes ago, Rory4Pres said:

Facts to back up my statement about how good the Bills/Chiefs games are...

 

57.4 million watched the Chiefs/Bills game.  Highest viewership of an NFC or AFC championship game since 2012 (giants/49ers 57.7 million).  

 

Meanwhile the commanders/eagles was 44.2 million viewers, the lowest since 2019 (Rams/Saints 44.1 million).  

 

For perspective, 15.8 million was the average viewership for the world series last year.

#theswifteffect 😉 

[jda]

My friend encouraged me to lean into the rigged jokes.  Here is a deep cut for those of you who are well-versed in semi-vintage, well-done cinema.

 

Did you all see the leaked secret footage of the meeting to decide how The SuperBowl is going to be rigged.  Instructions going by Jet Backpack, Walther PPK holstered and Vulcan escort to the head Ref Office as I type this.

[jda]

Report is out and the refs also missed a pretty easy false start on Bills near the goal line.  Chiefs were not really offsides on the FG attempt.  The face mask on Charles O was on the shoulder - with all of the crying about reviewing 15 yard fouls last week, where are they for this call, which was not really hands to the face.  Rigged for the Bills.  I am kidding of course, but would like to see somebody just ONE TIME who wants to complain about refs have calls from both sides, since they are always there.

 

Heard that competition committee to meet on tush push this offseason... not likely to ban it, but to put in new rules around spots and reviews and stuff.  Likely if you run this play, then you get what you get since no camera is ever exactly straight down the line and the line/down judge cannot see really well.  If you run the play and it is close, then you don't get to complain.  BTW - this was in the works all year and not because people are complaining that the Bills just got hosed when others have had to live with close calls all season.

[TiScape]

Starting to think jda on the NFL’s/Chief’s payroll

🤣

 

I respect the hustle buddy!

[deadsolid...shank]

I had posted earlier in the thread that o thought the Bills were getting the better of the calls. At that point. 
 

I won’t even argue the spot because it’s just too close. But, I still would like an explanation about why the side judge at the top of the screen changed where he had it spotted. He was well past the line. They didn’t consult, just moved it back. If he saw it as past the line to gain then why does the other official’s spot take precedence? It didn’t look good. 
 

To me though, the bigger gripe is what was McDermott doing on the previous play?  It looked like the receiver was comfortably over the line to gain. Then the ball was moved back (notice nothing was said about that one, not sure they even showed a replay). But why wasn’t he doing something to have that spot looked at. Because it would have been pretty clear cut. That’s the replay I would like to see. Maybe he was short, but we really didn’t get to see it. 

[jda]

35 minutes ago, deadsolid...shank said:

I won’t even argue the spot because it’s just too close. But, I still would like an explanation about why the side judge at the top of the screen changed where he had it spotted.

 

When a back is turned, the judge who has the more clear view gets the final say.  It is the same reason why replay would never use the camera from top-of-screen side.  The bottom guy never changed his spot.  Like it or not, he went in there short and stayed short... the guy who had the call never waivered.

 

Buffalo should have challenged the 3rd down play, but alas, it is not as much fun if Buffalo was just not good enough.

 

What did not look good is that CBS said that a flag was thrown when there was not one.  Dumbasses all over the internet thought that the refs threw it as a backup just in case Buffalo did get a first down.  There is no flag on the All 22.  Pacheco also does not appear to go out of bounds in the all-22 and gave Buffalo another 38 seconds to make the Chiefs get a second first down to ice the game.

 

I always thought that playoff games need 3 more refs... the down and side judge stay where they are at LOS and then 2 more judges at the first down mark that do not move or look for formation/pre-snap penalties, but only spots as it pertains to first downs.  If it is fourth and a foot and there are 2 of them on each sideline a foot from each other, then so be it.  It is hard to come from the LOS and then make a spot 8 or 10 yards down the field... dress up like a zebra and try it if you have not.  The third guy needs to be back following the ball to look for backward passes and laterals in the backfield - in Divisional game last year, Allen throws an illegal forward pass on the first drive 3rd and 17... a big deal but no whining about that missed call.  Baseball does this VERY well with the extra umpires which really helps in the postseason.

[bscinstnct]

Im pretty stoked for this SB!

 

Great matchup, good D on both sides, Mahomie and Saquon. 

 

Seems like a toss up but have a feeling the Eagles are stronger all around. But never know with Mahomie the space man. 

 

[TiScape]

4 hours ago, bscinstnct said:

Im pretty stoked for this SB!

 

Great matchup, good D on both sides, Mahomie and Saquon. 

 

Seems like a toss up but have a feeling the Eagles are stronger all around. But never know with Mahomie the space man. 

 

I’m leaning towards not even watching. 

[bscinstnct]

5 hours ago, TiScape said:

I’m leaning towards not even watching. 

 

Now let me ask ya this…

 

If it was the 49ers or another team you like that was on the favorable end of the ref calls

 

would you still boycott? 

Edited January 29 by bscinstnct

[MU Mike]

8 hours ago, TiScape said:

I’m leaning towards not even watching. 

 

I assume you're betting big money on the Chiefs?  Since the outcome is already determined you should bet everything you have and make easy money!

[MU Mike]

16 hours ago, jda said:

 

When a back is turned, the judge who has the more clear view gets the final say.  It is the same reason why replay would never use the camera from top-of-screen side.  The bottom guy never changed his spot.  Like it or not, he went in there short and stayed short... the guy who had the call never waivered.

 

 

Exactly.  This happens multiple times a game, in every game.

 

I'm all for updating how we track and measure the forward progress of the ball.  But there was no conspiracy here to favor the Chiefs.  It's asinine.  And hey Bills, if the QB sneak/tush-push hasn't been very successful the entire game, I wouldn't ask the referees to try and guess where the ball was stopped in a mass of 22 large human beings.