Junior Golf Tournament Hierarchy List

[wegobomber31]

1 minute ago, Tugu said:

The data as presented by JGS shows approximately half of top 150 players at this time having single digit number of events in their counting tournaments. No statistician can draw much qualitative conclusion from such a sample alone.

 

I do however reiterate that noone needs JGS rankings to know if Miles Russell, Asterisk Talley, BB or LC are good players or not. Those types of kids go low, win or place high qith some regularity. All attributes of potential successful golfers beyond junior golf.

Now that I think of it, that analysis looked at events over the last 18 months to align to TUGR. So most would have at least 20 if not 30 or more tournament rounds (the thing we are averaging). 
 

there was a statement earlier in this thread saying “every time we see a -5 averaging 75+” implying that it happens more than once and is an average of tournament scores over some time period (12 of 18 months, I’m assuming). It may be happening, but I can’t say that I’ve seen it.

[wegobomber31]

29 minutes ago, golferdad8 said:

 

Btw @Tugu is being proven right every time we see top 50 ranked players (with -5 JGS scoring differential) who average 75+ & without many top 5 finishes become a top college recruit but then fade in college tournaments & beyond. 

 

***

 

I think my statement above is being misunderstood. I didn't say top 50 guys have those stats...

What I was trying to explain was that whenever I saw those stats by "top junior golfers," they tend to fade in college (or not play much on the team). 

 

As one example, one top 2025 JGS player who's committed to a top golf school:

13 tournaments, -4.5 scoring differentials, 75 strokes avg, with only 7 out of 36 rounds below par.

There's an AJGA win, but on all the other 12 tournaments, the highest was #14 and was at the bottom half or bottom quartile finish (second highest finish was #14).

Unfortunately, these stats and JGS rankings are not good predictor of who will performance well in college.

 

Going back to the OP comments, what is the goal of having these top tournaments rankings? 
Is it to play in the toughest tournaments and get high scoring differentials and rankings?
Is it to win? 

Is it to keep getting better by playing with top players?

Is it to get WAGR ranking?

If the goal is to eventually go pro, the best advice I heard was from Cameron Champ's dad, Jeff Champ:

1/3 tournaments - go learn and win by the highest margin possible (learning to go low, perhaps low 60s).

1/3 tournaments - be competitive with top players and be in the hunt to win or have a top finish

1/3 tournaments - play amateurs or with pros and get your butts kicked, and learn to get better

 

 

I agree with your sentiment that JGS isn’t a very good predictor of success. I just don’t know how one could interpret what you wrote about the top 50/75+ golfers any other way. 
 

Anyways, if JGS isn’t a good predictor of success, what (if anything) is? Scoring average? Rounds below par? Rounds in the 60s? Just going out and destroying competition?

 

I’m genuinely interested because I’ve been looking at the careers of most of the top college and juniors over the last 15 years and trying to see what differentiates between those that make it or those that never pan out. There is a shockingly high number of players who are all Americans in college and never get any better than the day they turn pro. They just can’t make the leap to professional golf. I suspect the same is for the transition from junior to college golf. 
 

I sort of see it as rungs of a ladder where some % drop off at every level and never reach the next rung. I guess that is the beauty of our game — everyone will get exposed to their ceiling sooner or later. 
 

 

[also I agree with the Cam Champ approach, which is part of the reason why my son still plays high school golf]

Edited January 14 by wegobomber31

[Tugu]

55 minutes ago, wegobomber31 said:

Now that I think of it, that analysis looked at events over the last 18 months to align to TUGR. So most would have at least 20 if not 30 or more tournament rounds (the thing we are averaging). 
 

there was a statement earlier in this thread saying “every time we see a -5 averaging 75+” implying that it happens more than once and is an average of tournament scores over some time period (12 of 18 months, I’m assuming). It may be happening, but I can’t say that I’ve seen it.

If approximately half are playing sub 10 events in a 12 month period...You can do the sums and extrapolate how many half of the players on JGS are playing over an 18 months period. Even assuming it's 20 to 30, this over a 78 week period. This cannot be the entirety of said players competitive golfing activity. Certainly if he/she claims to be any kind of a top prospect. 

 

44 minutes ago, wegobomber31 said:

I agree with your sentiment that JGS isn’t a very good predictor of success. I just don’t know how one could interpret what you wrote about the top 50/75+ golfers any other way. 
 

Anyways, if JGS isn’t a good predictor of success, what (if anything) is? Scoring average? Rounds below par? Rounds in the 60s? Just going out and destroying competition?

 

I’m genuinely interested because I’ve been looking at the careers of most of the top college and juniors over the last 15 years and trying to see what differentiates between those that make it or those that never pan out. There is a shockingly high number of players who are all Americans in college and never get any better than the day they turn pro. They just can’t make the leap to professional golf. I suspect the same is for the transition from junior to college golf. 
 

I sort of see it as rungs of a ladder where some % drop off at every level and never reach the next rung. I guess that is the beauty of our game — everyone will get exposed to their ceiling sooner or later. 

I'm not sure what statement I made as I have just joined this thread.

 

Fact is winning, going low and shooting low numbers with any kind of regularity has always been a sign of quality golf.

 

I cant go as far as to say who will be a success in pro golf, I've personally played with and seen guys that I thought would be world beaters. Per capita, Australia must have the most world beating looking players that don't Pan out than anywhere else in the world.

 

I will however suggest that it is alot easier to make a guesstimate on which junior golfers will make the successful transition to college golf. However, except for the very best (who dont need rankings), I don't believe that college golf success can be discerned by ranking data. 

 

If however one was to see say SHOTLINK data and a kid is just holing 15 footers ala Speith during his run, but hitting it sideways and getting away with it on 6500 open tracks, I would give odds to anyone who believes this kid will replicate this formula in a decent conference. 

 

The above is but one example in many. Another may be if a player is reliant on the CCA for his accolades, this would be something to watch out for. The opposite would be an Asterisk Talley who was playing, winning, going low and dominating before she left Northern California and showcased her talents to the world.

 

Again, I make no comment re pro golf. Who thought Ryan Ruffels would be a YouTuber 8 years on? But an eyeballs test will "often" suffice when it comes to the jump from junior to college golf. Its not foolproof, but intent (or lack thereof) is not hard to spot. Besides, it seems most kids already know who of their peers has the intention to take things up another rung. 

Edited January 14 by Tugu

[LOB-Dwight]

@wegobomber31 pretty sure you may know a little bit about this players game....

As one example, one top 2025 JGS player who's committed to a top golf school:

13 tournaments, -4.5 scoring differentials, 75 strokes avg, with only 7 out of 36 rounds below par.

[Golfquant]

26 minutes ago, golferdad8 said:

 

Btw @Tugu is being proven right every time we see top 50 ranked players (with -5 JGS scoring differential) who average 75+ & without many top 5 finishes become a top college recruit but then fade in college tournaments & beyond. 

 

***

 

I think my statement above is being misunderstood. I didn't say top 50 guys have those stats...

What I was trying to explain was that whenever I saw those stats by "top junior golfers," they tend to fade in college (or not play much on the team). 

 

As one example, one top 2025 JGS player who's committed to a top golf school:

13 tournaments, -4.5 scoring differentials, 75 strokes avg, with only 7 out of 36 rounds below par.

There's an AJGA win, but on all the other 12 tournaments, the highest was #14 and was at the bottom half or bottom quartile finish (second highest finish was #14).

Unfortunately, these stats and JGS rankings are not good predictor of who will performance well in college.

I don't know who you are referring to, but 1) -4.5 scoring differential equates to ~#65-70 for the class of 2025 on JGS, so not super elite and not top 50; and 2) maybe he just played in events with super high course ratings against really strong competition in these junior tournaments, in which case finishing 14th or even bottom quartile (when ranked #70) isn't bad?  

 

How many 2025's actually won an AJGA Open last year?  I have a feeling that player is probably a lot better than you give him credit for.

 

I actually read your -5/75+ comment as referring to junior golfers who had a -5 scoring differential who then go on to shoot 75+ in college.  I don't think there are hardly any of them, unless they just gave up on golf (used it as a means to an elite admissions end - there are plenty of those). 

 

[Tugu]

1 minute ago, Golfquant said:

How many 2025's actually won an AJGA Open last year?  I have a feeling that player is probably a lot better than you give him credit for.

 

Good as a junior, yes. But the junior career as a predictor of college success, questionable.

 

3 minutes ago, Golfquant said:

 

I actually read your -5/75+ comment as referring to junior golfers who had a -5 scoring differential who then go on to shoot 75+ in college.  I don't think there are hardly any of them, unless they just gave up on golf (used it as a means to an elite admissions end - there are plenty of those). 

 

I read it the same way and I can list a bunch just off the top of my head. Don't want to start yet another elite academic school and golf battle, so I won't bother listing them. But some of them aren't shooting 75 in college because some don't even make the team.

[wegobomber31]

35 minutes ago, LOB-Dwight said:

@wegobomber31 pretty sure you may know a little bit about this players game....

As one example, one top 2025 JGS player who's committed to a top golf school:

13 tournaments, -4.5 scoring differentials, 75 strokes avg, with only 7 out of 36 rounds below par.

Sorry, I haven’t been paying close enough attention to know who this is referring to. I know guys rise and fall all the time. 
 

if the original sentiment was about top recruits going on to shoot 75 in college, I would absolutely agree that happens quite often, for any number of reasons. 

[BallsBreakFast]

On 1/15/2025 at 12:29 AM, Tugu said:

....I do however reiterate that noone needs JGS rankings to know if Miles Russell, Asterisk Talley, BB or LC are good players or not. Those types of kids go low, win or place high with some regularity. All attributes of potential successful golfers beyond junior golf.

Congrats to Miles Russell on cracking top-50 on WAGR; and Nguyen Anh Minh too!

https://www.wagr.com/news/2025/january/week-02

[golfdad1]

On 1/14/2025 at 12:17 PM, LOB-Dwight said:

@wegobomber31 pretty sure you may know a little bit about this players game....

As one example, one top 2025 JGS player who's committed to a top golf school:

13 tournaments, -4.5 scoring differentials, 75 strokes avg, with only 7 out of 36 rounds below par.

Definitely wouldn't call him a top player. Caught lightning in a bottle at one invitational and that's it. And this 'top team' will not be that good in a year or two, as 24' & 25' recruiting has been less than stellar.

[StudentGolfer4]

How’s the Dye Junior viewed? Newer event but seems to have a pretty strong field. The kids I’ve talked to that have played have had good things to say about the event and the course. 
 

Hopefully taking this year off won’t hurt what they have going too much. 

[golfdad1]

24 minutes ago, StudentGolfer4 said:

How’s the Dye Junior viewed? Newer event but seems to have a pretty strong field. The kids I’ve talked to that have played have had good things to say about the event and the course. 
 

Hopefully taking this year off won’t hurt what they have going too much. 

Well run and challenging course setup, but the field isn't strong. They'll get a few top players, but overall it's average.

Edited January 18 by golfdad1

[BallsBreakFast]

On 1/15/2025 at 1:13 AM, Tugu said:

...The opposite would be an Asterisk Talley who was playing, winning, going low and dominating before she left Northern California and showcased her talents to the world...

Serious baller off to a strong start to 2025. She'll be one to watch in the girls and womens ams this summer... 🍿

https://www.wagr.com/news/2025/january/week-04

Talley edges closer to top 15

A fifth career-win on the American Junior Golf Association circuit sees U.S. Curtis Cup player Asterisk Talley on the verge of the World Amateur Golf Ranking® top 15. The Californian was a model of consistency in shooting three successive 68s around Heathrow Country Club in Heathrow, Florida to win the Hilton Grand Vacations ANNIKA Invitational presented by Rolex. Her 9-under-par 204 aggregate gave her the title by five shots. It is Talley’s second victory in her last three events, and takes her one ranking to 16th.

Edited January 31 by BallsBreakFast

[wegobomber31]

On 1/17/2025 at 9:59 PM, golfdad1 said:

Well run and challenging course setup, but the field isn't strong. They'll get a few top players, but overall it's average.

Dye Junior has had very strong fields in 2022-23 but dropped off a little bit this past summer. It was worth 100 Rolex points in 2023 and 75 points in 2024. Still above average, especially considering those points were accumulated off of just 36 players. It might be better served with a larger field size, but they play 36 on the first day. 
 

One twist this year is it is at the Purdue course while Crooked Stick is being renovated. But that might be a nice selling point this year for anyone looking for some Jr PGA Championship prep. 

[StudentGolfer4]

They have been pushing it to finish 36 the first day, and haven’t completed it on one or two occasions from what I recall. The field expanded from 33 to 36 players at one point. I’ll be curious if it goes back down. 
 

Cool to see the Purdue courses hosting this years. There are alot of Purdue grads at Crooked Stick. I didn’t know that about the Jr. PGA. I’m curious how it affects the field. Some may be looking for a preview of the course but the opportunity of playing Crooked Stick has to be part of the appeal too. 

[BallsBreakFast]

Field of 97 girls just announced for WAAP, incl WAGR #3 Duke-commit and studette Malixi (winner of both US girls and womens ams last summer). Quite a fair number of other US-college bound girls playing. Should be interesting as event is being played on a links-style course with grass that is not commonly used in Asia so will see who are best able to adapt.

https://www.randa.org/en/championships/womens-amateur-asia-pacific-championship-players 

"The Women’s Amateur Asia-Pacific championship (WAAP) has been developed by The R&A and Asia-Pacific Golf Confederation to unearth emerging talent and provide a pathway for Asia’s elite female amateurs to the international stage.

The winner earns invitations to play in three major championships – the AIG Women’s Open, the Amundi Evian Championship and The Chevron Championship as well as elite championships such as the Hana Financial Group Championship, ISPS HANDA Women’s Australian Open, The 122nd Women’s Amateur Championship and the Augusta National Women’s Amateur. 

The Championship is proudly supported by Hana Financial Group, ISPS Handa, Nippon Kabaya Ohayo Holdings, Puma, Samsung, Singha, Ricoh and Rolex."

Edited February 8 by BallsBreakFast

[BallsBreakFast]

Using @wegobomber31 WAGR estimator it seems this event will have a WAGR power of over 950 - almost as much as the US Women's Am last summer (978), Women's NCAA D1 champ (980) and ANWA (996).

AFAIK other than Huang and Galitsky, none of the past winners wound up going to college and instead went pro, including last years winner from Taiwan. 

Edited February 9 by BallsBreakFast
fixed