Will Scottie get ANY actual competition any time soon? (A study)

[Titleist99]

9 hours ago, phizzy30 said:

Tiger is done on the PGA Tour, period.  Not because of declining skill, but because of his horrendous injuries.   Champion Tours allows their players to ride around in carts so I can definitely see him winning there.  His ego won't let him though.  Not yet anyway.  He could retire from playing professionally as he he's got enough f*** you money/generational wealth and spend more time with his kids.  I think he will do the latter.      

I can see Tiger playing a few senior majors with his son on the bag.

[straightshot7]

Scottie's biggest competition is himself. Didn't you hear his recent comments? 

It sounds like he could announce an early retirement after a couple more majors.

[me05501]

19 hours ago, Pepperturbo said:

I disagree.  Scottie puts his pants on like everyone else.  He's up against competition in every event. The only difference is his mentality. and how he tackles challenging conditions. When he makes a mistake, like eveyrone else, he makes a birdie after, he stays focused and doesn't lose track of his ability or confidence. He remains calm.

 

 

I don't mean this as a slight but it seems like Scottie's ability to resist distractions comes from just not having a lot of non-essential mental activity. Not saying he is unintelligent but he is more of a plodder/doer/worker than a thinker IMO. See ball, hit ball, find ball, hit ball again. 

 

When he finds something that works for him he sticks with it.

 

The notorious grip trainer is a prime example. As long as he's played and as much success as he has had there is only the tiniest chance that his grip is suddenly going to morph into something different. Yet his habit or process involves making swings with his grip trainer and he's not going to change what's working. 

[subcrazy12]

12 hours ago, bobfoster said:

He's currently "the next Tiger". Or, really, the next next next Tiger. They crop up every few years. 

 

A couple years from now we'll move on to the next next next next Tiger. Is Scottie fantastic today? Yeppers. Can he sustain that level of dominance for a decade? Maybe, but I seriously doubt it. 

 

Maybe he wont who knows, but honestly what's stopping him from dominating the next 3-5 years?

He just turned 29 and will be in his physical prime for at least 3 more years. He doesn't seem to have vices, works hard, loves winning, doesn't waste time with all the sponsor crap, has a great mentality on the course, and let's be honest all the other guys are starting to talk about how in a different way which will be a mental edge. He is the best or top 3 in every aspect of the game outside putting and that is massively improved since the change to the Spyder.

 

He's the closest thing we've had to Tiger. 

[tiderider]

On 7/24/2025 at 5:01 AM, rukahs said:

He, among with Rory, are the main 2 factors that put a nail in the coffin of Tiger ever coming back and winning again - there were glimmers of hope but the numbers that Scottie is putting up is something nobody can compete with not even the younger fitter guys, which completely rules out Tiger. I know this isn't about TW, but thought I'd mention it for those who had any hopes of a comeback.

?? ... you think Tiger was going to make some kind of a semi-comeback before SS's run? ... or Rory winning the Masters? ... or that people thought Tiger was going to make a comeback but has decided against it because of SS? ...

 

i'm confused ... 

[Dutch1008]

17 hours ago, Birdman62 said:

The tl;dr is that the top talent is pretty thin now, leaving the door wide open for Scottie to win a boatload of trophies. In a more competitive environment with more top players his chances of dominating would be reduced. Deeper fields in general aren't going to have nearly the same effect on his chances. But that state of affairs can change as the younger crowd develops and improves.

 

Again, how is this different from the Tiger era? Who were the guys, younger than Tiger, that put pressure on him? Sergio, DJ, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, none of those guys won majors in their 20's. Each is a HOF caliber player and those players are effectively ignored in your analysis.  

 

I just don't see a big difference in the competitive landscape faced by Tiger or Scottie. 

[bscinstnct]

44 minutes ago, tiderider said:

?? ... you think Tiger was going to make some kind of a semi-comeback before SS's run? ... or Rory winning the Masters? ... or that people thought Tiger was going to make a comeback but has decided against it because of SS? ...

 

i'm confused ... 

 

 

Ya you know TW would only stage a comeback if he could get to be #1

 

He can get to #3 but Rory and especially Scottie game a little too strong for TW to take on 

[tiderider]

5 minutes ago, bscinstnct said:

 

 

Ya you know TW would only stage a comeback if he could get to be #1

 

He can get to #3 but Rory and especially Scottie game a little too strong for TW to take on 

[bscinstnct]

3 minutes ago, tiderider said:

 

🤣 Cliff Barnes how I remember that?!

 

 

[tiderider]

1 minute ago, bscinstnct said:

 

🤣 Cliff Barnes how I remember that?!

 

 

lawdy, we old, baw ... we old ... 😆

[golferdude54]

No one here ever compares him to Tom Watson for some reason. It's always either Tiger or Jack but Scottie's career parallels Watson's at the same age.

[Pepperturbo]

3 hours ago, me05501 said:

 

 

I don't mean this as a slight but it seems like Scottie's ability to resist distractions comes from just not having a lot of non-essential mental activity. Not saying he is unintelligent but he is more of a plodder/doer/worker than a thinker IMO. See ball, hit ball, find ball, hit ball again. 

 

When he finds something that works for him he sticks with it.

 

The notorious grip trainer is a prime example. As long as he's played and as much success as he has had there is only the tiniest chance that his grip is suddenly going to morph into something different. Yet his habit or process involves making swings with his grip trainer and he's not going to change what's working. 

As I see him, he can maintain focus while others are easily distracted. I am that same way.  I see the ball and hit it, find it and hit it again, and don't change what works. Sometimes the problem can be simple, right in front of someone's face, like the grip is off, while most others delve into changing all sorts of things, hoping.

[Pepperturbo]

I wouldn't say, Scottie is the the next Tiger, but maybe more like Jack Nicklaus.

[Birdman62]

2 hours ago, Dutch1008 said:

 

Again, how is this different from the Tiger era? Who were the guys, younger than Tiger, that put pressure on him? Sergio, DJ, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, none of those guys won majors in their 20's. Each is a HOF caliber player and those players are effectively ignored in your analysis.  

 

I just don't see a big difference in the competitive landscape faced by Tiger or Scottie. 

 

As far as your last statement is concerned, I would agree with you.

 

Well, Tiger's competition was a different issue, and a different study, which I actually did about ten years ago. Note I wasn't focusing on Tiger's competition at all per se here, as someone else brought that up. But since it has been raised, then let me address how often Tiger's rivals dueled him down to the final hole or two.

 

The shocking answer is "hardly ever." The top players of Tiger's time pretty much gave him a free pass to the vast majority of his majors.  Tho there were some exceptions: Augusta 2001, +2/+3 over Lefty/Duval, 2007 PGA +3 over Els. Note this is NOT the same as saying he would have lost significantly more than he did, if he indeed had to duel them down to the final shot, and his peak and dominance are also not being questioned. But he basically never went down to the final hole or a playoff having to hold off any of the top players of his time; instead he was dueling the likes of Bob May, Chris DiMarco, and Rocco Mediate. The contrast with Jack, who dueled Watson and Trevino like half a dozen times each to the very end, and Arnie a few more, couldn't be any starker; no matter how you studied it, you couldn't miss the gap there.

 

It was a two-way street of course, as Tiger winning so many denied these guys a chance to get more until after 2008. His actual overlapping competition in terms of peaks weren't those guys, who won all of their majors after that year, but were Ernie, Lefty, Vijay,, and  tho I'll grant Sergio since he had 4 2nds, and maybe Lee Westwood (c.f. the 2008 US Open).  Harrington, Goosen, and Cabrera by contrast were his rivals just for a few year's worth more or less note. Recall Tiger had relatively few 2nd's and 3rd's as well.

 

IOW if the "Tiger Effect" was a real thing, it says a lot more about his competition than it does about him. Were Lee Trevino or Tom Watson intimidated by Jack? I'd actually say they both had the right kind of personality to challenge him, a carefree approach to the game which basically was pressure-proof.

 

Note I did compare SS to Tom a few days ago.

 

SS likewise has had few such close duels either: Rory was 5 back @ Augusta 2022 going into the final hole, where SS had a meaningless double. Likewise Bryson was 2nd, but 5 back as well in the PGA this year. Scottie did lose by 2 to Koepka in 2023 of course, so I'd count that, and by 1 to Fitzpatrick in 2022. Again if he is beating them 3-5 shots he deserves all the credit there as nobody gets a fraction of a win/trophy/green jacket, but the fact remains none of them have stepped up their games when SS was on his A-game, other than Koepka there that one time.

[Ferguson]

18 hours ago, bobfoster said:

 

A couple years from now we'll move on to the next next next next Tiger. Is Scottie fantastic today? Yeppers. Can he sustain that level of dominance for a decade? Maybe, but I seriously doubt it. 

 

I agree.  Very soon, i see Scheffler hitting a wall.  

 

[Mr.Cleeks]

18 hours ago, bobfoster said:

He's currently "the next Tiger". Or, really, the next next next Tiger. They crop up every few years. 

 

A couple years from now we'll move on to the next next next next Tiger. Is Scottie fantastic today? Yeppers. Can he sustain that level of dominance for a decade? Maybe, but I seriously doubt it. 

What’s your definition of sustaining it? We’re in the 4th year of this now. I can’t think of anyone else in recent memory who’s won 17x and 4 majors plus a gold medal in 4 seasons. To me that’s the definition of dominance 

[Mr.Cleeks]

On 7/24/2025 at 6:01 AM, rukahs said:

He, among with Rory, are the main 2 factors that put a nail in the coffin of Tiger ever coming back and winning again - there were glimmers of hope but the numbers that Scottie is putting up is something nobody can compete with not even the younger fitter guys, which completely rules out Tiger. I know this isn't about TW, but thought I'd mention it for those who had any hopes of a comeback.

Tiger finishing 72 holes isn’t even a guarantee and frankly the game has moved on. Weirdly this feels like 2025 was the first post-Tiger year. 

[Pepperturbo]

1 hour ago, Ferguson said:

 

I agree.  Very soon, i see Scheffler hitting a wall.  

 

Every golfer eventually runs into something similar. How soon that is or if it even happens depends on the mental capacity of the person in question. I don't see it soon, but eventually.

 

Taking into account how Scottie generally behaves and acts under exteme pressure, the only wall he hits is the day he gets up, puts his pants on, looks at his bank account and says to his wife, we got enough?  If she says yes, it's up to you, he's likely to walk away. I say that because i did something similar not long ago.

[PJE]

This is Scheffler’s weapon: he makes a mistake but he moves on. Nicklaus and Woods had this ability as well. 

Scheffler’s “Bounce Back” stat (birdie after bogey) is 35% and that’s #1 on Tour. At the PGA,  his Bounce Back was at 60% and the field average was 16%. 
 

Note: I unsuccessfully tried to find career Bounce Back percentages for the top players. &nbsp
 

Right now, Scheffler is on a heater but his mental game and willpower have developed into a strength. 
 

A golfer with a long game, short game, and utter and complete self belief will be a special case. 
 

Scheffler:

Edited July 26 by PJE

[PedronNiall]

Scottie lacks competition because his nearest cohorts are either chasing swing changes, in a bad headspace, or both.

 

Rory's not only on his weirdness where he hitches in every takeaway as he chases power but he's gone back to his bad place of getting across the line and then having to save it on the way down.

 

Morikawa is so obsessed with his cut he's playing banana ball out there and has difficulty doing anything else. He's going through caddies, whining and/or snapping at the media, and overall lost when it comes to any consistency. Maybe marital problems?

 

Xander after winning two Majors last year decided he needed to tweak, as one does when their swing is good enough to win the big hardware, of course, and is now obsessed with working on getting to where his lead arm is dead straight.

 

Hovland is a nutter when it comes to chasing moves, feels, looks, and YouTube secrets. Like Xander, immediately upon having the best year of his career he was certain a some change would make things better, and so he set off to not only make the change, but went full send on making changes before he had even figured out what specific changes needed to happen.

 

DeShambles is chasing designing equipment to offset whatever's going on with him at the moment, everything from irons with bulging faces and the ultimate forgiving driver to toying with finding a ball that will let him get away with anything and everything. Quite the irony having the guy who went full machine to "simplify" the swing darting all over the place looking for cures.

 

Rahm seems to have lost any real focus, as one does when they have $300M+ banked and are playing in a hit & giggle league; he's somehow delusional he's going to get to Scottie's level while facing real competition hungry to win and be around next year only on four occasions each season.

 

Hatton only has four times a year to play real golf as well so no real telling how he'd be showing if he were still on the Tour, but despite not being a fan of his antics have to admit he'd probably be the most consistent and would have a world ranking aligning with his actual ability if he hadn't jumped ship.

 

JT is the short game king, but his long game gets streakier by the year as he continues trying to maintain his ultra steep swing. 

 

JJ has simple enough things going on he could keep peaking a few times a year and get it done. 

 

There's no one out there now who's comfortable enough in what they're doing to consistently play to Scottie's level, but if they'd get out of their heads they could as a group put up a much better front.

 

The actual young guys aren't in Scottie's league at all, but as @Dutch1008 and others pointed out, it's not the norm for the early 20-somethings to be the powerhouses. Åberg and Friends gave plenty of time before they peak, and he, Bhatia, and many of the others in that group have already managed wins, so they're trending in the right direction.

Edited July 26 by PedronNiall

[Mr.Cleeks]

22 hours ago, golferdude54 said:

No one here ever compares him to Tom Watson for some reason. It's always either Tiger or Jack but Scottie's career parallels Watson's at the same age.

Watson's career was so weird. An all time great but won all his majors in a 6 year window. I did a little bit of digging and Watson was on tour for a long time. Just for context Arnold Palmer won an event the 3rd year Watson was on tour and Watson won an event during Tiger's 2nd season on tour. 

[Titleist99]

16 minutes ago, Mr.Cleeks said:

Watson's career was so weird. An all time great but won all his majors in a 6 year window. I did a little bit of digging and Watson was on tour for a long time. Just for context Arnold Palmer won an event the 3rd year Watson was on tour and Watson won an event during Tiger's 2nd season on tour. 

While Scheffler concentrates solely on his fundamentals.

[Mr.Cleeks]

15 minutes ago, Titleist99 said:

While Scheffler concentrates solely on his fundamentals.

I’ve seen his pre-round routine and he still uses a practice club w a molded grip. 

[Golfnutgalen]

19 minutes ago, Mr.Cleeks said:

Watson's career was so weird. An all time great but won all his majors in a 6 year window. I did a little bit of digging and Watson was on tour for a long time. Just for context Arnold Palmer won an event the 3rd year Watson was on tour and Watson won an event during Tiger's 2nd season on tour. 

 

9 year window actually, maybe you were thinking of Arnie who won them in a 7 year window? Even Hogan is a pretty narrow gap of 8 years including the lost 1949 season so really 7 years. 

 

Gene Sarazen is the opposite with 3 early major wins followed by a huge 8 year gap and then another 4 more. Jones and Hagen mostly cleaned up during that stretch. 

[Mr.Cleeks]

7 minutes ago, Golfnutgalen said:

 

9 year window actually, maybe you were thinking of Arnie who won them in a 7 year window? Even Hogan is a pretty narrow gap of 8 years including the lost 1949 season so really 7 years. 

 

Gene Sarazen is the opposite with 3 early major wins followed by a huge 8 year gap and then another 4 more. Jones and Hagen mostly cleaned up during that stretch. 

Yes got the 2 mixed up. I think Phil stands alone in terms of longevity, I know Tiger has a longer gap (22 years) between his first major and last major but Phil had a 30 year gap between his first PGAT win and his last PGAT win. He also had a 30 year gap between his first top 10 in a major and his last top 10 in a major (1993 PGA > 2023 Masters).  Rory's first top 10 in a major was the 2009 US Open, Scottie's was the 2020 PGA Championship. I don't see any world where Rory contends at the 2039 US Open or Scottie contends at the 2050 PGA Championship. Call me crazy, but I can absolutely see Phil making a run at a Masters or an Open Championship one of these years. He's made the cut at the last 2 Opens and shot 2 rounds under par this year at Portrush.

[Mr.Cleeks]

I think Bryson could be the guy to challenge Scottie if he cleans a few things up. Bryson’s floor crazy high and he went T5-T2-T10 at the Masters/PGA/Open with his C game. If he figures how to hit a fade with the irons watch out

[glm]

He should send Greg Norman a THANK YOU card every week.

[Golfnutgalen]

This place seems as good as any to post some datagolf stats. I got the premium subscription because I've always loved stats but only for 1 month.

 

Here's Scottie from 2022- current. There are about 4 players within 1 stroke of his SG average. Cantlay is close enough, just a hair over 1 stroke:

 

Edited July 27 by Golfnutgalen

[Golfnutgalen]

Here's Tiger as well for comparison. It's a shame that the data doesn't go back any further than 2004 on this stats page. 

 

[Golfnutgalen]

I was surprised Bryson didn't show up in that earlier table. Here's majors only.