What do you think about this guy's handicap differntials?

TheCityGame · July 26, 2011

Bagger or benefit of the doubt?

All I know about this guy is his scores. I've never been paired with him. Couldn't pick him out of a line-up.

I bolded scores from his home course. The 1st, 3rd and 4th are tournament scores. All of the scores are from April through present. The two back to back scores (3rd and 4th from top) were from a two day tournament. He lapped the field. The top score was from the most recent tournament. It was a two-ball that paid low net individual and team (he won both by a mile). He's a 22 HDCP, and in two of his last three tournament rounds, he's shot 6.2 and 10.9 better than his HDCP.

Maybe he had epiphany between the 28.7 and the 15.8, so maybe it's too early to judge. His last three tournaments NOT on the list of 20 have differentials of 16.7, 20.5 and 32, all from late last year.
HT 11.1
AI 19.9
HT 20.5
HT 15.8
AI 28.7
AI 25.2
AI 23.6
AI 26.2
AI 22.5
H 27
AI 24.2
AI 23.3
AI 28
AI 26.5
AI 27.5
AI 28.6
AI 34.2
AI 41.6
AI 22.9
AI 20.8
AI 35

raynorfan1 · July 26, 2011

[quote name='TheCityGame' timestamp='1311692211' post='3424764']
All I know about this guy is his scores. I've never been paired with him. Couldn't pick him out of a line-up.

I bolded scores from his home course. The 1st, 3rd and 4th are tournament scores. All of the scores are from April through present. The two back to back scores (3rd and 4th from top) were from a two day tournament. He lapped the field. The top score was from the most recent tournament. It was a two-ball that paid low net individual and team (he won both by a mile). He's a 22 HDCP, and in two of his last three tournament rounds, he's shot 6.2 and 10.9 better than his HDCP.

Maybe he had epiphany between the 28.7 and the 15.8, so maybe it's too early to judge. His last three tournaments NOT on the list of 20 have differentials of 16.7, 20.5 and 32, all from late last year. [b][b]
[/b][/b][b] HT 11.1 [/b]
AI 19.9
[b] HT 20.5 [/b]
[b] HT 15.8 [/b]
AI 28.7
AI 25.2
AI 23.6
AI 26.2
AI 22.5
[b] H 27[/b]
AI 24.2
AI 23.3
AI 28
AI 26.5
AI 27.5
AI 28.6
AI 34.2
AI 41.6
AI 22.9
AI 20.8
AI 35
[/quote]

There are a couple of things that I find anomalous about this differential pattern. First, of his last 20 rounds, only 4 of them have been on his home course, and three of those were in tournaments? It's possible (I'm in a similar, but not as extreme situation, because my "home" course is near my summer house, and I play a lot of 'away' golf near my everyday apartment), but it seems unlikely.

I don't think it's particularly likely for a golfer posting differentials in the high 30s/low 40s to come up with an 11. That's basically shooting 110 on a course of average difficulty, and subsequently shooting an 81 - nearly a 30 stroke difference in a three-month period.

My guess, if I had to hazard one, is that he's improperly inputting tournament scores for rounds that were not played in accordance with the RoG. In other words, he's playing a 'best ball' format and entering his team's score; or it's an alternate shot format (where he's playing with a much better player) and he's entering that score.

TheCityGame · July 26, 2011

[quote name='raynorfan1' timestamp='1311695370' post='3424909']
[quote name='TheCityGame' timestamp='1311692211' post='3424764']
All I know about this guy is his scores. I've never been paired with him. Couldn't pick him out of a line-up.

I bolded scores from his home course. The 1st, 3rd and 4th are tournament scores. All of the scores are from April through present. The two back to back scores (3rd and 4th from top) were from a two day tournament. He lapped the field. The top score was from the most recent tournament. It was a two-ball that paid low net individual and team (he won both by a mile). He's a 22 HDCP, and in two of his last three tournament rounds, he's shot 6.2 and 10.9 better than his HDCP.

Maybe he had epiphany between the 28.7 and the 15.8, so maybe it's too early to judge. His last three tournaments NOT on the list of 20 have differentials of 16.7, 20.5 and 32, all from late last year. [b][b]
[/b][/b][b] HT 11.1 [/b]
AI 19.9
[b] HT 20.5 [/b]
[b] HT 15.8 [/b]
AI 28.7
AI 25.2
AI 23.6
AI 26.2
AI 22.5
[b] H 27[/b]
AI 24.2
AI 23.3
AI 28
AI 26.5
AI 27.5
AI 28.6
AI 34.2
AI 41.6
AI 22.9
AI 20.8
AI 35
[/quote]

There are a couple of things that I find anomalous about this differential pattern. First, of his last 20 rounds, only 4 of them have been on his home course, and three of those were in tournaments? It's possible (I'm in a similar, but not as extreme situation, because my "home" course is near my summer house, and I play a lot of 'away' golf near my everyday apartment), but it seems unlikely.

I don't think it's particularly likely for a golfer posting differentials in the high 30s/low 40s to come up with an 11. That's basically shooting 110 on a course of average difficulty, and subsequently shooting an 81 - nearly a 30 stroke difference in a three-month period.

My guess, if I had to hazard one, is that he's improperly inputting tournament scores for rounds that were not played in accordance with the RoG. In other words, he's playing a 'best ball' format and entering his team's score; or it's an alternate shot format (where he's playing with a much better player) and he's entering that score.
[/quote]
No, those are actual tournament scores, entered by the chairman, played with his club peers. Those are associated with cash prizes, playing the ball down, putting them all out.

This is a USGA club, which is associated with a course. A lot of the club members don't play many rounds at this course. It's a tough-to-get-on muni. I've only played it twice this year outside of tournaments.

raynorfan1 · July 26, 2011

[quote name='TheCityGame' timestamp='1311699611' post='3425150']
[quote name='raynorfan1' timestamp='1311695370' post='3424909']
[quote name='TheCityGame' timestamp='1311692211' post='3424764']
All I know about this guy is his scores. I've never been paired with him. Couldn't pick him out of a line-up.

I bolded scores from his home course. The 1st, 3rd and 4th are tournament scores. All of the scores are from April through present. The two back to back scores (3rd and 4th from top) were from a two day tournament. He lapped the field. The top score was from the most recent tournament. It was a two-ball that paid low net individual and team (he won both by a mile). He's a 22 HDCP, and in two of his last three tournament rounds, he's shot 6.2 and 10.9 better than his HDCP.

Maybe he had epiphany between the 28.7 and the 15.8, so maybe it's too early to judge. His last three tournaments NOT on the list of 20 have differentials of 16.7, 20.5 and 32, all from late last year. [b][b]
[/b][/b][b] HT 11.1 [/b]
AI 19.9
[b] HT 20.5 [/b]
[b] HT 15.8 [/b]
AI 28.7
AI 25.2
AI 23.6
AI 26.2
AI 22.5
[b] H 27[/b]
AI 24.2
AI 23.3
AI 28
AI 26.5
AI 27.5
AI 28.6
AI 34.2
AI 41.6
AI 22.9
AI 20.8
AI 35
[/quote]

There are a couple of things that I find anomalous about this differential pattern. First, of his last 20 rounds, only 4 of them have been on his home course, and three of those were in tournaments? It's possible (I'm in a similar, but not as extreme situation, because my "home" course is near my summer house, and I play a lot of 'away' golf near my everyday apartment), but it seems unlikely.

I don't think it's particularly likely for a golfer posting differentials in the high 30s/low 40s to come up with an 11. That's basically shooting 110 on a course of average difficulty, and subsequently shooting an 81 - nearly a 30 stroke difference in a three-month period.

My guess, if I had to hazard one, is that he's improperly inputting tournament scores for rounds that were not played in accordance with the RoG. In other words, he's playing a 'best ball' format and entering his team's score; or it's an alternate shot format (where he's playing with a much better player) and he's entering that score.
[/quote]
No, those are actual tournament scores, entered by the chairman, played with his club peers. Those are associated with cash prizes, playing the ball down, putting them all out.

This is a USGA club, which is associated with a course. A lot of the club members don't play many rounds at this course. It's a tough-to-get-on muni. I've only played it twice this year outside of tournaments.

[/quote]

It's statistically highly improbable that his scores are accurate.

The fact that three of his four lowest differentials are in tournaments is a little weird. Shooting a score 3 standard deviations away from his non-tournament average in a tournament, AND also shooting a score 2 standard deviations away, is highly unlikely.

IMHO, there are one of two things going on here: either he's not entering low scores or he's falsely entering high scores. Or both.

larrybud · July 26, 2011

What are the dates of these scores?

mark m · July 26, 2011

Answer: he is most likely a sandbagger or someone who is improving faster than the system can react (see below). As Larrybud asked, the dates of the scores could help determine what is going on as well. Numerous away scores are discussed below as well.

Either way, the Handicap Committee should have a talk with him and adjust his handicap so that it reflects his scoring potential.
His best differentials are what should be looked at. This is what he has been capable of - particularily most recently.

He should probably be in the 11.0 - 13.0 range. If not lower. It depends on his responses.

Numbers:

His away scores average = 26.98
Best 8 of 17 away scores = 22.8

Home scores average = 18.6
Tournament score average = 15.8

Best 1 of 3 Tournment scores = 11.1

Keep in mind that if you are just starting out, the USGA will use your best 1 of 5 differentials/scores to determine your index.
It then gradually works it way up to using the best 10 of 20.

8-4c. Handicap Index Adjustment by Handicap CommitteeThe [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapCommittee"]Handicap Committee[/url][/i] has the responsibility of making certain that each player has a [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] reflecting potential ability. Under the following circumstances, it will be necessary for the [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapCommittee"]Handicap Committee[/url][/i] to adjust the player's [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i]. However, the following list is not all-inclusive, and a [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapCommittee"]Handicap Committee[/url][/i] has the ultimate authority to adjust a [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] under any circumstance that it feels necessary to do so. Before an adjustment becomes effective, the [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapCommittee"]Handicap Committee[/url][/i] must give the player an opportunity to explain the circumstances surrounding the proposed adjustment, either in writing or by appearing before the committee. When an adjustment does become effective, it must be identified with the letter M, reflecting that the [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapCommittee"]Handicap Committee[/url][/i] has modified the [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] (e.g., 4.9M).

[i]Note[/i]: See Appendix B for a sample letter notifying a player of [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] adjustment.

[b](i) Improving Faster Than The System Can React[/b]
A player recently taking up the game may improve too rapidly for a [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] calculated by the standard procedure to reflect potential ability. For example, a player who is working on their game by practicing aspects of their game and/or taking playing lessons (see Decision [url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14380#5-1d/1"]5-1d/1[/url]) may not have a scoring record that exhibits potential ability and may need a [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] adjustment. Also, if the player's [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] is only updated once a month, for example, then the [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapCommittee"]Handicap Committee[/url][/i] may consider adjusting the player's [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] to account for the player's improvement within the next month.

[b](ii) Numerous Away or Internet Scores Change Index[/b]
If a player's [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] increases by 3.0 or more strokes due to the posting of numerous away or Internet scores, and subsequent scores at the player's club clearly indicate that the increased [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] is too high, the [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapCommittee"]Handicap Committee[/url][/i] must adjust the player's [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] downward.

[b](iii) Temporary Disability[/b]
An increase in a [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] must not be granted because a player's game is temporarily off or the player has discontinued play. However, an increased handicap may be given for a temporary disability. The increased handicap is not a [i]Handicap Index,[/i] and it must be identified by the letter "L" to indicate that it is for local use. For example, a player having had recent surgery may be given a higher handicap while recovering. (See Decisions [url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14386#8-4c/1"]8-4c/1[/url], [url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14386#8-4c/2"]8-4c/2[/url], and [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#localhandicap"]local handicap[/url][/i].)

[b](iv) Failure to Post[/b]
A [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] must be adjusted up or down if the player does not turn in all acceptable scores or otherwise does not observe the spirit of the [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#USGAHandicapSystem"]USGA Handicap System[/url][/i]. The [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapCommittee"]Handicap Committee[/url][/i] must determine the amount of adjustment.

[b](v) Player Manipulates Round[/b]
The [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapCommittee"]Handicap Committee[/url][/i] must adjust or withdraw the [i][url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14370#HandicapIndex"]Handicap Index[/url][/i] of a player who manipulates scores. (See Section [url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14385#8-4"]8-4f[/url].) Examples of manipulating scores include the following:

(a) Posting erroneous scores;

(b) Stopping play after 6 holes to avoid posting scores;

© Repeatedly playing more than one ball to avoid posting scores;

(d) Not adjusting hole scores under Section [url="http://www.usga.org/workarea/linkit.aspx?linkidentifier=id&itemid=14377"]4[/url];

(e) Deliberately reporting more or fewer strokes than actually scored;

(f) Deliberately taking extra strokes to inflate a score.

TheCityGame · July 29, 2011

Sorry for the delay.

Those 20 scores are from about April, so he's playing a couple times a week.

His handicap history goes back for a year or so and fluctuates between about 20 and 24 but nothing like an 11 or 15.

Rockfish · July 29, 2011

Welllllllllllllllll,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

In our club we keep 2 handicaps. 1 for our HOME COURSE ONLY and, of course, a USGA handicap for ALL rounds we play.

At our home course events we use our "home course only" handicaps for competition. When the club goes away on an outing we use the USGA handicaps.

Now, for a LOT of guys, the 2 handicaps are exactly the same because they only PLAY at our home course.

But for others,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

15 or so years ago I played to a 2 at my home course. Knew every blade of grass by its first name and almost never played anywhere BUT home. Because of this I was at a TERRIBLE disadvantage AWAY from home. I was literally no better than a 9 or a 10 away from home. No lie.

Now I am a more accomplished player. My "away" handicap is a legitimate 5 and my home handicap is about 2. TODAY I am a USGA 3.3 BUT, every one of my 10 differentials is a home score.

So while this guy's performance DOES seem a bit unusual I'd say it's nowhere near impossible. He shot 1/2 his handicap number concentrating in a tournament AT HOME.

Given my own experience that wouldn't seem all THAT unusual.

Having said all that.....

[url="http://www.usga.org/playing/handicaps/understanding_handicap/articles/deanstable.html"]USGA Odds of shooting an exceptional tournament score[/url]

raynorfan1 · July 30, 2011

[quote name='Rockfish' timestamp='1311997440' post='3435207']
So while this guy's performance DOES seem a bit unusual I'd say it's nowhere near impossible. He shot 1/2 his handicap number concentrating in a tournament AT HOME.

Given my own experience that wouldn't seem all THAT unusual.

[/quote]

I would definitely agree if there were a lot of home scores that were much lower than his away scores. But he's only played one non-tournament round at home in three months - and that one round was about average, compared to his other non-tournament rounds.

rogolf · July 30, 2011

[quote name='TheCityGame' timestamp='1311692211' post='3424764']
All I know about this guy is his scores. I've never been paired with him. Couldn't pick him out of a line-up.

I bolded scores from his home course. The 1st, 3rd and 4th are tournament scores. All of the scores are from April through present. The two back to back scores (3rd and 4th from top) were from a two day tournament. He lapped the field. The top score was from the most recent tournament. It was a two-ball that paid low net individual and team (he won both by a mile). He's a 22 HDCP, and in two of his last three tournament rounds, he's shot 6.2 and 10.9 better than his HDCP.

Maybe he had epiphany between the 28.7 and the 15.8, so maybe it's too early to judge. His last three tournaments NOT on the list of 20 have differentials of 16.7, 20.5 and 32, all from late last year. [b][b]
[/b][/b][b]HT 11.1 [/b]
AI 19.9
[b]HT 20.5 [/b]
[b]HT 15.8 [/b]
AI 28.7
AI 25.2
AI 23.6
AI 26.2
AI 22.5
[b]H 27[/b]
AI 24.2
AI 23.3
AI 28
AI 26.5
AI 27.5
AI 28.6
AI 34.2
AI 41.6
AI 22.9
AI 20.8
AI 35
[/quote]

Have you calculated his handicap based on these scores?

mark m · July 30, 2011

I am pretty sure he would get a reduced ('R') Handicap Index from the USGA because 2 of his 'T" scores are way better than his non tournament score rounds.

This would give him an Index about 16.1R.

Your handicap is what you can shoot if you play well.

What is this guy capable of? i.e., what has he done lately?

This is a case for the Handicap Committee - not for the computation service - why that is has been addressed already.

What would you do if you were on the HC?

TheCityGame · August 1, 2011

[quote name='rogolf' timestamp='1312067062' post='3437179']
[quote name='TheCityGame' timestamp='1311692211' post='3424764']
All I know about this guy is his scores. I've never been paired with him. Couldn't pick him out of a line-up.

I bolded scores from his home course. The 1st, 3rd and 4th are tournament scores. All of the scores are from April through present. The two back to back scores (3rd and 4th from top) were from a two day tournament. He lapped the field. The top score was from the most recent tournament. It was a two-ball that paid low net individual and team (he won both by a mile). He's a 22 HDCP, and in two of his last three tournament rounds, he's shot 6.2 and 10.9 better than his HDCP.

Maybe he had epiphany between the 28.7 and the 15.8, so maybe it's too early to judge. His last three tournaments NOT on the list of 20 have differentials of 16.7, 20.5 and 32, all from late last year. [b][b]
[/b][/b][b]HT 11.1 [/b]
AI 19.9
[b]HT 20.5 [/b]
[b]HT 15.8 [/b]
AI 28.7
AI 25.2
AI 23.6
AI 26.2
AI 22.5
[b]H 27[/b]
AI 24.2
AI 23.3
AI 28
AI 26.5
AI 27.5
AI 28.6
AI 34.2
AI 41.6
AI 22.9
AI 20.8
AI 35
[/quote]

Have you calculated his handicap based on these scores?
[/quote]
I have his handicap calculated through the system.

To [b]mark m [/b]-- what[b] [/b]would I do? I'm not sure what the handicap chairman's responsibility is here? Is it outside the HC's duties to talk to the guys he has played with? I just joined this club this year, so for all I know, they've known this guy for 20 years and he's just been VERY lucky this season. We haven't had the August 1st adjustment yet, AND the (negligent) handicap chairman hasn't entered scores from the last tournament where the guy had a net 61 so I don't know if he's getting an "R".

Bonneville85308 · August 13, 2011

I would suspect that some of those high "AI" rounds are made-up BS he entered to puff up his 'cap. It is probably tempting for the sandbagger, what with the ability to go to ghin.com and enter whatever you want.

Most of the guys I know who shoot 105+ more than half the time just don't have the swings to suddenly pull out something in the 80s. Luck can help you in this game, but not THAT much.

My club has some complicated system whereby if you shoot way below your handicap a few times in club tournaments (net scores), they start reducing your handicap in subsequent tournaments.

mark m · August 13, 2011

CityGame: Sorry - I just noticed your last post a few minutes ago. Has anything changed this month?

What I meant in my previous post is - what would you do [u]if you[/u] (and others on this forum) were on the Hdcp Committee?

Most Clubs do not have a good Handicap Committee.

What should they do?

1. The first red flag was his tournament score differentials (which were much better than his other differentials in his scoring record.) They are required to look at the results of competitions. If they did that, they would see problems with his scoring record.

2. One thing I didn't know - 'T' scores are saved in the system for one year - perhaps he had older 'T' scores in the system? - which could make a difference in whether or not he gets the 'R' or the severity of it.

3. The numerous away scores are also a red flag - and his scoring record and handicap must be examined closely by the Committee for this reason as well as #1.

The bottom line: I don't have all the facts in front of me. Regardless, the Handicap Committee [b]must[/b] take a look at this players handicap. (It is not an option - it says [u]must[/u], not "may")

If the HC makes an adjustment: It is best not to make accusations - just tell the player that they believe, based on recent scores, that his new adjusted handicap matches his current scoring potential. If he objects or whatever - just say, " look, I think you are playing well and I expect that you can play to this new index or perhaps even better." (Because - in fact - he has done so recently.)

Why let someone get away with a handicap that is not based on his scoring potential?

As a member, all you can do is point out to the Hdcp Comm what their duties are, but if they don't do anything, then you should make a decision regarding your participation in this club's tournaments.