Birdman62

As far as your last statement is concerned, I would agree with you. Well, Tiger's competition was a different issue, and a different study, which I actually did about ten years ago. Note I wasn't focusing on Tiger's competition at all per se here, as someone else brought that up. But since it has been raised, then let me address how often Tiger's rivals dueled him down to the final hole or two. The shocking answer is "hardly ever." The top players of Tiger's time pretty much gave him a free pass to the vast majority of his majors. Tho there were some exceptions: Augusta 2001, +2/+3 over Lefty/Duval, 2007 PGA +3 over Els. Note this is NOT the same as saying he would have lost significantly more than he did, if he indeed had to duel them down to the final shot, and his peak and dominance are also not being questioned. But he basically never went down to the final hole or a playoff having to hold off any of the top players of his time; instead he was dueling the likes of Bob May, Chris DiMarco, and Rocco Mediate. The contrast with Jack, who dueled Watson and Trevino like half a dozen times each to the very end, and Arnie a few more, couldn't be any starker; no matter how you studied it, you couldn't miss the gap there. It was a two-way street of course, as Tiger winning so many denied these guys a chance to get more until after 2008. His actual overlapping competition in terms of peaks weren't those guys, who won all of their majors after that year, but were Ernie, Lefty, Vijay,, and tho I'll grant Sergio since he had 4 2nds, and maybe Lee Westwood (c.f. the 2008 US Open). Harrington, Goosen, and Cabrera by contrast were his rivals just for a few year's worth more or less note. Recall Tiger had relatively few 2nd's and 3rd's as well. IOW if the "Tiger Effect" was a real thing, it says a lot more about his competition than it does about him. Were Lee Trevino or Tom Watson intimidated by Jack? I'd actually say they both had the right kind of personality to challenge him, a carefree approach to the game which basically was pressure-proof. Note I did compare SS to Tom a few days ago. SS likewise has had few such close duels either: Rory was 5 back @ Augusta 2022 going into the final hole, where SS had a meaningless double. Likewise Bryson was 2nd, but 5 back as well in the PGA this year. Scottie did lose by 2 to Koepka in 2023 of course, so I'd count that, and by 1 to Fitzpatrick in 2022. Again if he is beating them 3-5 shots he deserves all the credit there as nobody gets a fraction of a win/trophy/green jacket, but the fact remains none of them have stepped up their games when SS was on his A-game, other than Koepka there that one time.

They need to come from the young guns because the older guys almost certainly will decline, as several of them already have (tho they certainly have time to get a second wind). Historically there typically has been a new young gun that appears suddenly (or gradually yes) on the scene, but right now none has deigned to have done so for a number of years now, and the one who seemed to have started down such a path [Morikawa] has seen his progression completely stall for 4+ years now. Right now Scottie's top competition is indeed 3 near-contemporaries in terms of age. One of the four you listed however has had a very indifferent 2 years where he hasn't closely contended in anything. WI 1 or 2 of them get older, or injured, or apathetic? New competition HAS to come from the young set, esp. if the fitness and equipment side of things now has lowered when their decline phases begin. [We've seen the same thing in baseball note, where dominant players over 35 are very rare now.] Because there is a subtle but significant difference between general field depth and TOP depth; they most certainly are not synonymous. In a major the top of the leaderboard typically reflects the extreme right hand long tail of talent, with yes a modicum of luck involved as well. 7 of the last 8 majors have been won by just 4 guys. Yeah players like JJ will come from the pack to grab a title here and there, and you could certainly argue such journeymen winners are more common now than they were during Arnie & Jack's reigns, but the majority of majors are won by the top players at any given moment. It doesn't really matter if someone like say Denny McCarthy finishes 7 shots out, or 17--either way they had zero effect on Scottie's chances of winning last weekend. It makes a huge difference if Justin Rose was -11 or -8 at the Masters. The tl;dr is that the top talent is pretty thin now, leaving the door wide open for Scottie to win a boatload of trophies. In a more competitive environment with more top players his chances of dominating would be reduced. Deeper fields in general aren't going to have nearly the same effect on his chances. But that state of affairs can change as the younger crowd develops and improves. I think the twins are the ones who bear watching the most. I've noted in another forum just how infrequently primary blood relations of top players in golf dominate anywhere near as well as said famous relative (be them a parent, offspring, or a sibling)-they've basically been nonexistent in golf actually, unless you want to count the Morrises from 150+ years ago in a completely different environment. What we may be seeing from them in the future may be a very unique sight in the history of sports, even more so than the Williams sisters. Note I am well aware that my methodology wasn't optimal, but to really nail things down into a perfect and neat little package would require several more hours of work, for relatively minimal gain. Top tens in majors seemed to be the best measure I could focus on without spending a dissertation's worth of time on it all.

Because he sure isn't getting much now. Awhile back when I started noticing the first trend I am about to discuss, I collated who was the youngest male golfer who had at least one major trophy in their career (starting in 1959), age calculated to the tenth of year as of Sept. 1st (for consistency, even if the PGA has now moved to May). The values ranged from 21.7 [Tiger (1997)] to 30.3 [Mark Calcavecchia (1990) and Geoff Ogilvy (2006)], with an overall average of 26.3. The longest reigning player was indeed Tiger, for nine straight years [1997 to 2005]; Jack was there for 7, 1962 to 1968. Other golfers who spent multiple years as the youngest included Rory, Jordan, and Seve, but also John Daly, Bob Tway, and Jerry Pate. This measure provides a decent gauge of how competitive the youngest age cohort is at any given time for a given field or tour, tho certainly it isn't perfect (ideally I'd collate the 5 youngest or such). As of this upcoming Sept 1st the youngest will remain Collin Morikawa (28.7), for the 6th straight year. In his case he does act as a rather accurate proxy for both his own cohort as well as those younger than he is. In other words, today's mid 20-somethings so far have drastically underperformed. The poster child definitely has to be Viktor Hovland. He made a couple of big splashes in 2019 as the low amateur in both the Masters and US Open, so after he turned pro after the latter tournament (age 21.7) expectations were pretty high. Since then however he's had only 5 top 5's in majors, and infamously missed the cut in 3 of 2024's majors after a decent 2023 (2 top tens, highest finish 2nd in the PGA). He did contend at Oakmont this year, coming in with a credible 3rd place finish. However he is only 5 months younger than Morikawa. This is important because, given the relatively high competition in the game now, the aging curve has shown the decline phase, adjusted to reflect improvements in overall field strength (which of course often reflects improvements in equipment and not skill so much), now begins at age 32. Having examined only results in majors since the Hogan/Snead era, there is a clear dropoff past age 35. Note however, for major winners, we are concerned with PEAK performance (which is generally what wins trophies), and not overall field strength per se. A given field can indeed have a lot of depth but have hardly any peak performers. So, to win a bunch of majors and achieve a historical peak, it definitely helps to start early (tho certainly isn't a guarantee, as Hal Sutton and Jerry Pate on the low end, and Lefty and Ben Hogan on the high end can attest to). We do have some other candidates who could have a big breakout, such as Ludvig Åberg (25.8 on Sept 1st), and the Danish twins, Nicolai & Rasmus Højgaard (24.5). Åberg has two close finishes in the Masters the last two years, but hasn't contended at all in the other 3 majors. The twins haven't had any top 10's yet, tho they do have 8 total European tour wins between them. Wanting to cast a wider net, I decided to check ages for all four top ten leaderboards for this year's majors, for anyone younger than Morikawa (so 27 or under, up to 27.9). It was pretty thin going for said cohort. Top 10's DO include that tournament's finish: Player Age Top 10's --------------------------------------- Highsmith 25.0 1 Åberg 25.4 2 Gerard 25.7 1 Gotterup 26.0 1 Joaquín Niemann 26.4 1 Im 27.0 4 Hovland 27.5 5 Young 27.9 6 Four of them have had no prior top tens. The three with the most are also the oldest. Basically at this point, it looks like it's Hovland, Åberg, the twins, Im, or bust, and Viktor will soon age out of his 20's as will Im. Gotterup did have a helluva month. Undoubtedly other players from this cohort will end up winning a few here and there, but in terms of historical peaks so far none of them have shown they can consistently contend and win. --------- That's the young guns. How about the veterans who already have at least 1 major and who are at least as old than Morikawa, up through age 36? They arguably have done even worse, in relative terms as compared to their prior record at least, for anybody below the top 3 at least. This time I'll just tally their top tens over the last 2 years (2024-2025): Player Titles T10 ------------------ McIlroy 1 3 Schauffele 2 6 DeChambeau 1 6 Rahm 0 3 Morikawa 0 2 Fitzpatrick 0 2 Spieth 0 0 Koepka 0 0 Matsuyama 0 1 Smith 0 1 Clark 0 1 Harman 0 1 We know all about the top three, as well as Xander's injury struggles this year, but he did manage to pull out two top tens. But below that none of these players have done much in the last two years to give themselves a chance to win. As Rory ages out of his peak years, it will be up to Bryson and X to keep Scottie in check, but beyond them his level of competition looks to be VERY thin, unless and until someone younger than him can reach a peak which can challenge him consistently. Note however it is quite possible for two top players to "ghost" each other and rarely contend together in the same tournament. This isn't tennis, where the match play format will usually force two top players into playing each other by the semifinals at least. Jack Nicklaus and Gary Player for example won 27 majors between them, most of which overlapped the other's career, but they contended against each other very rarely. Tiger and Phil were another surprise pair of that type, having won 21 majors, but only finishing together in the top 3 in the same tournament 7 times, but this overstates things because they often beat each other by 3+ shots so it rarely came down to the final hole like it did with Jack when he dueled with Trevino and Watson.

Note I most definitely am NOT a hater, and do not begrudge him his on-the-course demeanor one bit. He owes fans absolutely nothing in that regard. I am rather in awe of him in fact. I have simply been pointing out that, given his age, statistically he has ~6-7 maybe 9-10 years to cement his legacy. His best comps aren't Jack or Tiger, they're Tom Watson and Gary Player. And I have to take into account his recent comments, because that sounds like someone who could very easily get nailed by burnout at some point. But the sheer and utter failure of any golfers younger than him to win anything since SS's Masters win in 2022 may indeed mean he'll blow past fellow Texan Ben Hogan with ease as the older cohort ages out of contention, leaving him high and dry and dominant. [That's a post for later today] If those trends continue it most certainly may warrant laying down some money somewhere on him winning the calendar Grand Slam.

Once again, he likely won't, because Tiger did that when he was about 6 years younger. I REALLY wish people would keep ignoring his actual age (tho mea culpa here when my dyslexic brain made me think he was a year older than he actually was). Coke to StoutKing.

Jordan Spieth said that Scottie during casual rounds is a real cutup. He knows however how to put on his game face to, you know, win majors. He's not out there to entertain you per se.

Best typo of the entire year.

Is this "Champion Golfer of the Year" a real thing? What are the qualifications? Never heard of it until this week. Anyway, Scottie deserves all the accolades for this win.

Utterly mystifying when people seem to forget Brooks Koepka ever existed when they make the above observation.

The irony is that he hasn't yet won the one major which you would think would be an ideal match for his game.

Well, it is important to differentiate two different things here. Of course it is very important to have a significant amount of detachment from one's outcome on a golf course, and I think that goes without saying. But just as crucially the all-time greats simultaneously had a ton of drive, which your Tiger example clearly indicates. My fave Jack example was after he won his 5th Green Jacket, he was asked if he was going to rest on his laurels now that he had passed Arnie there. He promptly replied (paraphrasing from a close to 50 year memory), "Of course not. Now I want to win it 6, 7, 8 times." I simply cannot recall or even imagine either he or Tiger saying what Scottie said the other day. [Cites to the contrary welcomed tho] Note Jack was still beaming in photos after that win (while Johnny and Tom glowered in the shadows). Now maybe Scottie does indeed have a lot of drive to go with his Buddha-level equanimity, and he'll continue to pile up the trophies. But maybe in the long term his historical legacy simply isn't going to be all that important to him, and he may pull a Bobby Jones if say he does win the yearly Grand Slam and promptly decides to walk into the sunset.

Wow. Guess he is human after all.

Stenson's records are now very much in Scottie's sights.

Golfers decline earlier than people think they do, usually by the mid 30's, and said decline really getting steep by the early 40's. He realistically only has 5-6 years to cement the majority of his legacy. Yes, this is obscured a bit when older golfers occasionally win, but they almost always are all-time greats who can still pull a miracle or two out in their 40's since their peaks were so high to begin with.

Except for his little interview the other day where he said he doesn't really care if he wins anything. Yes, you can parse and interpret that all you want, but I cannot recall or even imagine any other top ten major winner ever saying something like that. As in Plus Jack and Hogan are the only guys who have won 9 majors after they turned 30. However, the second part of your post Como82 is very pertinent, as right now the under-30 male golfing contigent is almost completely moribund. I will likely start a separate thread on this on Monday, but right now the only guy under 30 near the top is Gotterup, whose majors record has been very spotty. The twins are both -6 and have acquitted themselves fairly well I'll grant, but have no top tens in any majors yet. Åberg is -5 but has missed the last two major cuts after his 71 hole effort at the Masters. OK there's Haotong, but he will turn 30 in 2 weeks and has been lost in the wilderness for the entire decade. Hovland is likely the biggest disappointment all told, and Morikawa the one which has frittered away his early promise the most. Point is some of these guys need to turn their potential into actual, and that right soon. If none of them do, hell Scottie may indeed tie Tiger at this rate.

-14.

For a guy who generally hits the ball as well as he does, Scottie sure does occasionally unleash the ugliest swings.

Rors!

If you watch the vid in slo mo it looks to be lopsided.

That's the craziest thing I've ever seen on a golf course, Rory hitting two balls at once unintentionally. And I've watched quite a few goofy golf videos on YT.

Only ONE amateur made the cut at a major this year: Justin Hastings. WHAT up and coming generation... If nobody younger than Collin Morikawa wins this weekend, he'll remain the youngest player with at least one major for 4 years now, and if that holds by April 2027 nobody under 30 will have any trophys.

I don't see him on the board anywhere-I guess he didn't get an exemption and then failed to qualify? Yes, the first place I looked was at the very bottom...

Meanhoo a guy from the People's Republic is now tied for the lead.

Rors on the warpath. If he keeps playing like he did last weekend he'll be there at the end.